19 replies to this topic

[hoikarnage]

Been in rays for a total of five days.

 

Day one: no VIP account and no HE gum = 2 raydric cards

 

Day two through five: VIP service + HE gum = zero cards (but about 20 chain mails, which supposedly drop at the same rate).

 

Then just for the heck of it, after my last gum wears off, I decide to keep killing for about ten minutes, and bam, card.

 

Conclusion: HE gum is a waste of cash, and it's no wonder you can buy them dirt cheap from vendors. They are useless unless you are looking for regular drops and crappy gear.

[DocNousakan]

Should have done a statistical analysis with number of Raydrics killed each session, and then compiled the odds of getting a card based on that.

As it stands, anecdotal evidence could be more "luck of the draw" instead of a clear correlation between drop rates and HE gums.

Edited by DocNousakan, 24 September 2013 - 07:14 AM.

[hoikarnage]

Oh I'm sure it's some sort of luck of the draw nonsense, but after five days it starts to become more like, "Screw you and your -_-ty kafra crap, Gravity."

 

I could have bought several raydric cards if I had just sold the HE gum instead of using it.

[DocNousakan]

If this is true, it does deserve some testing.  People who use gums for MVP cards would probably want to know if it's working or not.

That's the problem with gums though, unless you get really lucky (or you have a ton of KP/Z to blow), I doubt you'll break even.

[Sapphic]

I've seen 1 mvp card drop w/o gum and about 7 or so drop with gum, so my anecdotal evidence makes your anecdotal evidence wrong, ha!

Edited by Sapphic, 24 September 2013 - 07:58 AM.

[hoikarnage]

I've seen 1 mvp card drop w/o gum and about 7 or so drop with gum, so my anecdotal evidence makes your anecdotal evidence wrong, ha!

 

Yeah but you would have seen like 15 drop if no gum had been involved.

[strafe247]

They started importing HE Gums from China. 

[Campitor]

Lets not spread false rumors, new players read these forums as well.

[hoikarnage]

Lets not spread false rumors, new players read these forums as well.

 

Don't you think it's healthy for new players to read threads like these? I mean the last thing you want is a bunch of noobs who are upset because they thought HE gum was the solution to all their problems. It's good for them to understand that gum doesn't always work out, even if you spend five days and 130m on them.

[XIII_Eraser]

I've seen 1 mvp card drop w/o gum and about 7 or so drop with gum, so my anecdotal evidence makes your anecdotal evidence wrong, ha!

I think the only reason this happened is because people always or most of the time use HE Gum when MVPing thinking it would actually help and that one time you saw an MVP card drop w/o HE gum was just a random lucky one where the MVPer just didn't bother to get gum. Now I'm not saying HE gum doesn't work in fact based on my experience the 2 times that I got an MVP card I was using HE gum but if what the OP is saying has some truth to it then I think it is worth looking at and I remember reading before that if you have too much drop modifiers you actually lessen the chance of you getting something.

[Campitor]

Gum works on everything. Drop modifiers work very much the same as EXP modifiers except with one slight change. With the bonus from items and VIP as you approach 100% drop chance there is a reduced return mechanism so you won't reach 100% drop chance. For the low chance items you always get the full effect from the item. When we do a double drops event server side you can reach that 100% drop rate.

 

 

 

However for example when the bonus is +100% for a item that has a .02% drop chance it only becomes .04% drop chance. Which means it is very hard to notice a significant difference in the drop rate unless you take a massive sample size. a .02% drop rate means that as you approach infinity sample size about 1 in 5000 monsters will drop that item.

 

 

[DocNousakan]

Don't you think it's healthy for new players to read threads like these? I mean the last thing you want is a bunch of noobs who are upset because they thought HE gum was the solution to all their problems. It's good for them to understand that gum doesn't always work out, even if you spend five days and 130m on them.

It may be wise to say that it's not a significant enough increase in the drop rate to justify the cost of using them on "cheaper" items.  Even if you double or triple the drop rate on cards, it's still statistically low that you'll find them.  It's a risk versus reward scenario that does not pan out well unless you find a significant number of rares that sell for more then the cost of the gums that you've used.  However, if you spent 500 mill on HE gums and found an MVP card using them, you've turned quite a profit.

 

So, it boils down to this simple principle:  Don't waste HE gums trying to find things that you can buy regularly in player shops!  It's better to save up for those gears or cards then risking money on gums that are not reliable.  When you can start farming items worth billions, then go crazy with the gums!

 

Edit:  ^That's what I was trying to say without having to do math, thank you!

Edited by DocNousakan, 24 September 2013 - 09:20 AM.

[iamvrypwrful]

However for example when the bonus is +100% for a item that has a .02% drop chance it only becomes .04% drop chance. Which means it is very hard to notice a significant difference in the drop rate unless you take a massive sample size. a .02% drop rate means that as you approach infinity sample size about 1 in 5000 monsters will drop that item.

 

You would have to kill like 500,000 raydrics on HE gum and then 500,000 more on no gum to get a somewhat reliable answer.

Edited by iamvrypwrful, 24 September 2013 - 09:54 AM.

[Izzy1]

OK, it's like this. You have a lottery ticket, if you buy one you only get one chance of winning if you buy two tickets, your chances are increased. There's no guarantee it will win, your chances are just increased slightly.

 

I have seen a significant difference in using a HE gum and not using one. especially on "regular drops" Cards are a low chance. one day you'll be lucky! With or without. However, if you are hunting for a specific card from a monster, your chances ARE increased. it's patience. It'd be a very boring game if everything is handed to you on a plate.

 

As frustrating as it may be, the rewards do eventually out-weigh the frustration.

[Viri]

I wish everyone understood some fairly basic statistical analysis before making threads like this. But they don't so don't make stuff up lol

[iamvrypwrful]

I wish everyone understood some fairly basic statistical analysis before making threads like this. But they don't so don't make stuff up lol

 

AKA COMMON SENSE

[Viri]

Welcome to the internet

 

EDIT: "I POPPED AN HE GUM AND KILLED TWO MOBS AND GOT TWO CARDS IT MUST BE BUGGED 100% RATE HURR DURR"

Edited by Viri, 24 September 2013 - 11:08 AM.

[hoikarnage]

I wish everyone understood some fairly basic statistical analysis before making threads like this. But they don't so don't make stuff up lol

 

ITT, people taking me seriously.

 

In case you haven't figured it out yet, I was just ranting because I keep getting these damn chain mails when I want cards.

[hmc317]

ITT, people taking me seriously.

In case you haven't figured it out yet, I was just ranting because I keep getting these damn chain mails when I want cards.

baddie baddie baddie, you're bad.

[Viri]

The thing is most of the people that play this game are pretty much majorly mentally disabled and can't understand that you're full of it lol