13 replies to this topic

[AgentBast]

Earlier tonight I used 13 safe to 7 certs to try and upgrade a FAW from +5 to +6 and had 13 fail in a row with no success. Is that normal and what is the % for success?

Edited by AgentBast, 10 December 2014 - 02:08 AM.

[Bronx]

Upgrading npc's do not take into account your previous attempts when upgrading a piece of gear. It's merely rolling a dice/flipping a coin/pulling a random number out of a hat. You failing 12 times in a row makes no difference to the npc, as it's just doing as it's programmed.

You got unlucky.

[Necrohealiac]

you're using a bad batch of ores.

on a more serious note:

http://irowiki.org/wiki/Refinement has the actual % of success depending on what type of ore you're using.

for +5-+6 you have a 40% chance of success each time using regular elus. as bronx mentioned, each attempt is its own independent event (think flipping a single coin to get heads or tails).

you were very unlucky however, as the odds of failing 13x in a row is approximately 1 in 149,011 (1/.4^13)

Edited by Necrohealiac, 10 December 2014 - 05:25 AM.

[AgentBast]

you're using a bad batch of ores.

on a more serious note:

http://irowiki.org/wiki/Refinement has the actual % of success depending on what type of ore you're using.

for +5-+6 you have a 40% chance of success each time using regular elus. as bronx mentioned, each attempt is its own independent event (think flipping a single coin to get heads or tails).

you were very unlucky however, as the odds of failing 13x in a row is approximately 1 in 149,011 (1/.4^13)

in other words i have the most terrible luck in the entire server x.x

[teitoklien]

in other words i have the most terrible luck in the entire server x.x

 

I once broke 14 Star dust blades in a row trying to +5 them, in retrospect i should have just paid the extra 5m for the weapon cert but nooo i had to try and cut costs and ended up spending 15x more.

 

RNG in this game is brutal my friend.

Edited by teitoklien, 10 December 2014 - 09:34 AM.

[DrAzzy]

Yup, 40%, you just had a run of bad luck. Luck is much streakier than our brains are wired to expect - we didn't evolve in a world with randInt(). 

[Diarka]

Just wait for the Enriched hammer. You'll be spending a lot more money in upgrading with mighty hammer. Now to think about it, they're prolly holding back on enriched hammer so people can spend more money on mighty hammer = profit lol

[Havenn]

in other words i have the most terrible luck in the entire server x.x

 

idk, compare it to my 64 failed +10 attempts on one item....that never got to +10....

 

 

Your's is still prob worse....but mine was so expensive =/

Edited by Havenn, 10 December 2014 - 10:09 AM.

[Viri]

in other words i have the most terrible luck in the entire server x.x

 

Shouldn't it be chance of failure? So 1/(.6^13) which is only 1/765

[Necrohealiac]

 

Shouldn't it be chance of failure? So 1/(.6^13) which is only 1/765

 
looks like i reversed it. makes more sense this way. however, failing 64 times in a row going to +10 is slightly worse luck than this (1 out of 848; 1/.9^64)

[Havenn]

I win!...or lose.....

 

=[

[Necrohealiac]

you get a participation prize tho! the hammers thank you for your patronage.

[Diarka]

You gave a lunch treat to the g.ms! that's nice of you~

[Weazy15]

idk, compare it to my 64 failed +10 attempts on one item....that never got to +10....

 

 

Your's is still prob worse....but mine was so expensive =/

 

Oh geez... I spent $100 on upgrading my KVM GSOD from +9 to 10 using Enriched Ori and i end up w/ +5 (I was desperate till all my ori's run out.) and that's the reason why I don't want to play Warlock anymore -.-