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The raffler is a fraud.


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#1 hoikarnage

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Posted 06 February 2015 - 01:10 PM

I just performed a few tests, and it is possible to lose more than 100 times on the OCA raffle, which is 1:100

 

In a true raffle, there would only be 100 tickets to pull, and it would be impossible to pull the same number twice, so if you pulled 99 tickets and didn't win, the 100th would have to be the winner.

 

This is in fact more like a slot machine with 1:100 odds, meaning you could literally play forever and not win, unlike a raffle, which always has a winner, no matter what.

 

A raffle never ends without someone winning.

 

Calling it a raffle is false advertising, I just thought people should know that.


Edited by hoikarnage, 06 February 2015 - 01:14 PM.

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#2 Necrohealiac

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Posted 06 February 2015 - 01:12 PM

yeah but "zeny sink" doesn't have as nice a ring.
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#3 Easly

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Posted 06 February 2015 - 01:17 PM

It has always been like this.


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#4 3305141201055603410

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Posted 06 February 2015 - 01:30 PM

Just because it has always been like that doesn't mean it has to continue.

 

Either make it so each pull is from a finite pool of tickets, or change Rafael to one of those vending machines and call it what it is.


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#5 mikayel

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Posted 06 February 2015 - 01:38 PM

Making a finite pool would reward anyone who waits to buy a ticket near the end. That is, if I wait for others to buy the first 99 tickets and I buy the last one, then I am guaranteed the OCA while everyone else would foot the bill to increase my odds.

 

This is an extremely simplified example, but you get the point. The only way that raffle would work is if the winner is announced only after _all_ tickets are sold. Ya know, like a real raffle. 

 

I do agree tho, it is false advertisement. It should be advertised as a slot machine or as a 1:100 per ticket chance. 


Edited by mikayel, 06 February 2015 - 01:38 PM.

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#6 DrAzzy

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Posted 06 February 2015 - 01:39 PM

The NPC does not work like a true raffle, because the NPC scripting doesn't have the capacity to run a true raffle - you would need to be able to store a database of which numbers have been pulled and which one wins. I don't think they have a good way to track that; recall that NPC scripting is pretty primitive. 

 

This is obvious when talking to it, though, as you can see that it regenerates the winning number every time you talk to it, so it always maintains the starting chance.


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#7 Viri

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Posted 06 February 2015 - 01:41 PM

I think its MORE fair like this. Otherwise people could abuse it by waiting until 50%/75%/90%(whatever) the tickets were taken before attempting to raffle very quickly and win with much higher rates.


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#8 hoikarnage

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Posted 06 February 2015 - 01:47 PM

I think its MORE fair like this. Otherwise people could abuse it by waiting until 50%/75%/90%(whatever) the tickets were taken before attempting to raffle very quickly and win with much higher rates.

 

Since there is no way to know how many tickets have been sold yet, I don't see it as a problem.

 

I think it's more unfair for someone to have to pay 20m for tickets and still not win anything when they should have only paid a maximum of 10m (which is still overpriced for an OCA).


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#9 Viri

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Posted 06 February 2015 - 01:53 PM

That's what the consolation prizes are for. They USED to have the consolation prize = 80-100% of the value of a raffle ticket. Now it's like not even 50% of some of them. Really not worthwhile raffle. I haven't bothered to do even a single one and I was really looking forward to it, every time prior had at LEAST 1 that was worthwhile.


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#10 UnknownBeing

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Posted 06 February 2015 - 03:10 PM

I think its MORE fair like this. Otherwise people could abuse it by waiting until 50%/75%/90%(whatever) the tickets were taken before attempting to raffle very quickly and win with much higher rates.


Yeah they likely altered the script after players abused this flaw. It's more of a lottery than a raffle. It doesn't look very profitable to gamble.
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#11 kingarthur6687

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Posted 06 February 2015 - 03:21 PM

The crux of the argument being made here is that the Raffler is in fact a Slot Machine and that this is in fact a case of false advertisement.

 

Putting aside opinions of whether one likes how the Raffler works, because such opinions don't actually matter with the discussion at hand, I agree with the OP. +1.


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#12 mikayel

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Posted 06 February 2015 - 03:37 PM

Meh, the raffle should obviously be an irrational investment. If you could make your money back or even come close to breaking even, then this raffle would be pointless and would be dominated by people with billions of zenny.

 

As it is now, someone with only 3 mil to their name could potentially get lucky and get slotted sunglasses or an MCA or something, which I imagine is the real point of the 'raffle'.

 

Anyway, yes, be ware (or be aware) that you are in fact playing a slot machine. 


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#13 Quanta

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Posted 06 February 2015 - 03:49 PM

So who's bringing the class-action lawsuit? Is the FCC involved yet?


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#14 mic9010

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Posted 06 February 2015 - 03:56 PM

To me, using the OCA example, the winning chance is (1/100)*(1/100) = 1/10000 since both numbers are pulled with 1/100 chances and they should match. Anyway, just take it easy, the purpose of the raffler is to bring some fun and eat the extra zeny from the market 


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#15 Viri

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Posted 06 February 2015 - 03:58 PM

To me, using the OCA example, the winning chance is (1/100)*(1/100) = 1/10000 since both numbers are pulled with 1/100 chances and they should match. Anyway, just take it easy, the purpose of the raffler is to bring some fun and eat the extra zeny from the market 

 

Except there's 100 chances to win in that situation, if you pull 1 on both, if you pull 2 on both, etc so its really (1/100)*(1/100) * 100 so 1/100 still...


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#16 mic9010

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Posted 06 February 2015 - 04:05 PM

Except there's 100 chances to win in that situation, if you pull 1 on both, if you pull 2 on both, etc so its really (1/100)*(1/100) * 100 so 1/100 still...

Oh, I forget there are 100 chances to win, thx for correcting me :heh:


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#17 ExDarkrb

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Posted 06 February 2015 - 04:21 PM

Since there is no way to know how many tickets have been sold yet, I don't see it as a problem.

 

I think it's more unfair for someone to have to pay 20m for tickets and still not win anything when they should have only paid a maximum of 10m (which is still overpriced for an OCA).

 

well then would you rather an npc that sells u OCA for 8m directly? this is a luck n chance event for gods sake


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#18 ranalek

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Posted 06 February 2015 - 04:32 PM

this is how I understand it works.

 

Let's say it's a 1:100 chance. Each time you pull a number, you have a one in one hundred chance to win. EACH TIME!! Each time you bet your chance resets to one 1:100


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#19 hoikarnage

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Posted 06 February 2015 - 04:38 PM

well then would you rather an npc that sells u OCA for 8m directly? this is a luck n chance event for gods sake

 

Like I said, this is just an issue of false advertising. If someone uses the NPC based on the assumption it's a raffle, then it seems like a pretty good deal, but as it stands right now, it's not a good deal unless you get lucky.


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#20 mikayel

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Posted 06 February 2015 - 04:54 PM

The title of 'raffle' may be misleading, but the description from the bulletin board is accurate -- each time, you are basically pulling a ticket from a new set.


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#21 Shippou22

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Posted 06 February 2015 - 05:07 PM

the wiki itself says the npc is not a real raffle.


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#22 Necrohealiac

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Posted 06 February 2015 - 06:33 PM

better call the BBB to voice your displeasure


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#23 Rythen

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Posted 07 February 2015 - 09:40 AM

I just performed a few tests, and it is possible to lose more than 100 times on the OCA raffle, which is 1:100

 

In a true raffle, there would only be 100 tickets to pull, and it would be impossible to pull the same number twice, so if you pulled 99 tickets and didn't win, the 100th would have to be the winner.

 

This is in fact more like a slot machine with 1:100 odds, meaning you could literally play forever and not win, unlike a raffle, which always has a winner, no matter what.

 

A raffle never ends without someone winning.

 

Calling it a raffle is false advertising, I just thought people should know that.

 

In a raffle you would be pre-purchasing tickets, and either at a set date or whenever all tickets are gone, the winner would be drawn. That wouldn't be much fun.

 

This is more of a lottery drawing than a raffle, but calling it a raffle sounds less like gambling than a calling it a lottery would.

 

But unless someone is really interested in the semantics, is anyone really going to care what they call it?


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#24 Bronx

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Posted 07 February 2015 - 09:56 AM

Raffle is the truth. I was on it last night by myself cause bored/rich, and spent 26m to get slotted sunnies, which are worth about 30m right now. I got my money back, plus 190 ygg seeds for free. What a nice raffler.
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#25 Allen8807

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Posted 07 February 2015 - 10:02 AM

always something special when this guy talks, people have clearly stated what the purpose is and this raffler has been around for years, if you don't like it don't play no1 is forcing you to walk over and spam the raffler because you want that KBC, OCA, etc. On to the next thing to QQ about Tame  :heh:


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