300 items were involved in testing.
137 items broke
72 accounts were involved in testing.
20484 refine attempts were made last night.
2 times items reached/lost levels to level 19 (All of them were REDACTED)
8 times items reached/lost levels to level 18 (All of them were REDACTED)
13 times items reached/lost levels to level 17 (10 of them were REDACTED)
56 times items reached/lost levels to level 16 (24 of them were REDACTED)
189 times items reached/lost levels to level 15
697 times items reached/lost levels to level 14
1151 times items reached/lost levels to level 13
2494 times items reached/lost levels to level 12
8246 times items reached/lost levels to level 11
6376 times items reached/lost levels to level 10
58 times items reached/lost levels to level 9
69 times items reached/lost levels to level 8
105 times items reached/lost levels to level 7
135 times items reached/lost levels to level 6
165 times items reached/lost levels to level 5
175 times items reached level 4
175 times items reached level 3
175 times items reached level 2
176 times items reached level 1
1st conclusion. REDACTED has an amazing amount of luck... there is no other way to express that as long as he doesn't participate in the event no level 20 items will be made. His initial push to 18 was all successes and that was just strange to see.
40 distinct items reached level 15
12 distinct items reached level 16
5 distinct items reached level 17
1 distinct item reached level 18
Keep in mind that these numbers represent an unlimited supply of Ore and Zeny with which to refine. In reality players are for more likely to stop sooner rather than push higher.
Judging from the logs the event makes +12 a possibility for more users. Beyond that is luck. It took 2.5% of all the refines done last night for an item to touch level 19 and that was sheer random chance.
Discussion Points:
What are your concerns after viewing the data? I intend to meet with the studio before the event goes live next week. Where I will ask the clear and concise concerns the community shares here.
Stated Concerns to raise with the studio.