Yeah sure I can point you the reference. You can search on google cumulative probability worked on percentages basics, it might help if you wanna learn more.
Let me help you with some basic situation, coins head or tails. (no easier example than this). 50% head 50% tails.
You throw three coins, what is the change to get 3 heads in a row? I can already answer you it's not 50%. Whoever gets the right answer might be closer on getting the refine rates system formula.
Thanks for your reply. I think what you were trying to tell me is that,
9/10 * 9/10 * 9/10 = 72.9%
I am unsure of 18.1% however.
But, that's not the case at all.
Case 1: All 3 lvl 3 Succeed from +5 to +6
9/10 AND 9/10 AND 9/10 = 72.9%
Case 2: 2 lvl 3 Succeed from +5 to +6 and 1 fail
[9/10 AND 9/10 AND 1/10 ] OR [9/10 AND 1/10 AND 9/10 ] OR [1/10 AND 9/10 AND 9/10 ] = 8.1% * 3 = 24.3%
Case 3: 1 lvl 3 Succeed from +5 to +6 and 2 fail
[9/10 AND 1/10 AND 1/10 ] OR [1/10 AND 9/10 AND 1/10 ] OR [1/10 AND 1/10 AND 9/10 ] = 0.9% * 3 = 2.7%
Case 4: All 3 lvl 3 Fail from +5 to +6
1/10 AND 1/10 AND 1/10 = 0.1%
The chance in cumulative probability is way lower than 18.1%
Also, for at least One scenario, you get [ Case 1 OR Case 2 OR Case 3 ] = 99.9%
AND is denoted with x
OR is denoted with +
I think the worst part is that the chance to break exist and you somehow unfortunately fell into those chances every single time. Maybe try the casino since the chances are stacked against you and you seem to have hit the low percentage jackpot lol.
I actually have some form of proof(depending on what you consider proof) that your luck was just insanely bad in this case(I'm not even superstitious but I have no other way referring this event). No point on posting it though if you have already realized that you hit the unlucky jackpot.
Looks like it >< I hit the Bad Jackpot
I failed 6 healing staff +7 ~ +8 with enriched. lol
I feel your pain! But at least you're facing 40% @6 counts. but you should have landed atleast one :S
Edited by Rodnix, 25 September 2017 - 07:30 AM.