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Enriched Refine Rates


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#1 Rodnix

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Posted 24 September 2017 - 06:33 AM

Hello all,

 

I am unsure of the refine rates available in Odin... What is our current refine rates? is it the same mentioned in iRO wiki?

What about the Enriched ones?

 

 

Either I am one of the unluckiest of people or I broke two lvl 3 weapons from +5 to +6 using Enriched Oridecons, that's got 90% success rates. Has success rates been changed for Odin?

 

Concerned, if I want to upgrade another one with KP. I feel a bit cheated unless someone points out that I am absolutely unlucky.

 

 


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#2 DarthaNyan

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Posted 24 September 2017 - 08:34 AM

You are absolutely unlucky to get cheated.


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#3 Rodnix

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Posted 24 September 2017 - 11:06 AM

Thanks for confirming that the rates are still the same. But i was just unlucky.
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#4 3654130908081136160

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Posted 24 September 2017 - 05:35 PM

It should be same as iro..
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#5 hungrymuch

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Posted 24 September 2017 - 06:58 PM

Who knows tbh, they might have or might not have. Unless someone has the data for it. 


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#6 ZolpidemSleep

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Posted 24 September 2017 - 07:28 PM

18.1% is the chance to break three level 3 weapons from +5 to +6.

72.9% is the chance of succeeding making three +6 level 3 weapons.

 

Guess which category did you fell on.


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#7 Rodnix

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Posted 24 September 2017 - 08:05 PM

It should be same as iro..


I thought as much too... But I'm not sure. Refine rates @ http://irowiki.org/w...Success_Chances is very favourable for +5 to +6 and I've broken 3 now. 90% chance with success is not true.
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#8 Rodnix

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Posted 24 September 2017 - 08:08 PM

18.1% is the chance to break three level 3 weapons from +5 to +6.
72.9% is the chance of succeeding making three +6 level 3 weapons.

Guess which category did you fell on.


Wow that's some interesting numbers. I can live with my stuff breaking if it's those numbers. Can you point me to a reference where it says its 72.9% for lvl 3 weapons to become +6 from +5? Thx.
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#9 senpa1

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Posted 24 September 2017 - 08:12 PM

I thought as much too... But I'm not sure. Refine rates @ http://irowiki.org/w...Success_Chances is very favourable for +5 to +6 and I've broken 3 now. 90% chance with success is not true.

 

you're wrong lol

 

it's renewal refine rates, +5-6 with enriched is 90% chance success 


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#10 Niriw

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Posted 24 September 2017 - 08:48 PM

Wow that's some interesting numbers. I can live with my stuff breaking if it's those numbers. Can you point me to a reference where it says its 72.9% for lvl 3 weapons to become +6 from +5? Thx.

It's probabilities.

 

According to wiki, the success chance with enriched is 0.9, so the chance of making 3 out of 3 +6 weapons is 0.9^3 which is 0.729 or 72.9%, which was correct. But the chance of making 0 out of 3 +6 weapons is 0.1^3=0.001 or 0.1% (I don't know where he pulled the 18.1% from)


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#11 Rodnix

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Posted 24 September 2017 - 09:01 PM

It's probabilities.

According to wiki, the success chance with enriched is 0.9, so the chance of making 3 out of 3 +6 weapons is 0.9^3 which is 0.729 or 72.9%, which was correct. But the chance of making 0 out of 3 +6 weapons is 0.1^3=0.001 or 0.1% (I don't know where he pulled the 18.1% from)


I don't think he was pointing to probability there... It looked like hard success rates.
90% with enriched should be the norm, I guess I got the bad end.
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#12 ZolpidemSleep

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Posted 24 September 2017 - 09:23 PM

Wow that's some interesting numbers. I can live with my stuff breaking if it's those numbers. Can you point me to a reference where it says its 72.9% for lvl 3 weapons to become +6 from +5? Thx.

 

Yeah sure I can point you the reference. You can search on google cumulative probability worked on percentages basics, it might help if you wanna learn more.

 

 

Let me help you with some basic situation, coins head or tails. (no easier example than this). 50% head 50% tails.

 

You throw three coins, what is the change to get 3 heads in a row? I can already answer you it's not 50%. Whoever gets the right answer might be closer on getting the refine rates system formula.


Edited by ZolpidemSleep, 24 September 2017 - 09:30 PM.

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#13 Quoc

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Posted 24 September 2017 - 11:33 PM

I think the worst part is that the chance to break exist and you somehow unfortunately fell into those chances every single time. Maybe try the casino since the chances are stacked against you and you seem to have hit the low percentage jackpot lol.

 

I actually have some form of proof(depending on what you consider proof) that your luck was just insanely bad in this case(I'm not even superstitious but I have no other way referring this event). No point on posting it though if you have already realized that you hit the unlucky jackpot.

 


Edited by Quoc, 24 September 2017 - 11:40 PM.

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#14 3654130908081136160

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Posted 25 September 2017 - 12:24 AM

I failed 6 healing staff +7 ~ +8 with enriched. lol


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#15 Arctism

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Posted 25 September 2017 - 02:05 AM

Just hammerfall sunbhi.


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#16 Rodnix

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Posted 25 September 2017 - 02:09 AM

Yeah sure I can point you the reference. You can search on google cumulative probability worked on percentages basics, it might help if you wanna learn more.

 

 

Let me help you with some basic situation, coins head or tails. (no easier example than this). 50% head 50% tails.

 

You throw three coins, what is the change to get 3 heads in a row? I can already answer you it's not 50%. Whoever gets the right answer might be closer on getting the refine rates system formula.

 

Thanks for your reply. I think what you were trying to tell me is that, 

9/10 * 9/10 * 9/10 = 72.9%

I am unsure of 18.1% however. 

 

But, that's not the case at all.

Case 1: All 3 lvl 3 Succeed from +5 to +6

9/10 AND 9/10 AND 9/10 = 72.9%

 

Case 2: 2 lvl 3 Succeed from +5 to +6 and 1 fail

[9/10 AND 9/10 AND 1/10 ] OR [9/10 AND 1/10 AND 9/10 ] OR [1/10 AND 9/10 AND 9/10 ] = 8.1% * 3 = 24.3%

 

Case 3: 1 lvl 3 Succeed from +5 to +6 and 2 fail

[9/10 AND 1/10 AND 1/10 ] OR [1/10 AND 9/10 AND 1/10 ] OR [1/10 AND 1/10 AND 9/10 ] = 0.9% * 3 = 2.7%

 

Case 4: All 3 lvl 3 Fail from +5 to +6

1/10 AND 1/10 AND 1/10 = 0.1%

 

The chance in cumulative probability is way lower than 18.1%

 

Also, for at least One scenario, you get [ Case 1 OR Case 2 OR Case 3 ] = 99.9%

AND is denoted with x

OR is denoted with +

 

I think the worst part is that the chance to break exist and you somehow unfortunately fell into those chances every single time. Maybe try the casino since the chances are stacked against you and you seem to have hit the low percentage jackpot lol.

 

I actually have some form of proof(depending on what you consider proof) that your luck was just insanely bad in this case(I'm not even superstitious but I have no other way referring this event). No point on posting it though if you have already realized that you hit the unlucky jackpot.

 

Looks like it >< I hit the Bad Jackpot

 

I failed 6 healing staff +7 ~ +8 with enriched. lol

 

I feel your pain! But at least you're facing 40% @6 counts. but you should have landed atleast one :S 


Edited by Rodnix, 25 September 2017 - 07:30 AM.

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#17 Rodnix

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Posted 25 September 2017 - 02:13 AM

Just hammerfall sunbhi.

Dang! That might work! I'll try that next time :)


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#18 Niriw

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Posted 25 September 2017 - 06:34 AM

Thanks for your reply. I think what you were trying to tell me is that, 

9/10 * 9/10 * 9/10 = 72.9%

and Chance to fail = 1-72.9% = 18.1%, if i'm not mistaken

 

But, that's not the case at all.

Case 1: All 3 lvl 3 Succeed from +5 to +6

9/10 AND 9/10 AND 9/10 = 72.9%

 

Case 2: 2 lvl 3 Succeed from +5 to +6 and 1 fail

9/10 AND 9/10 AND 1/10 = 8.1%

 

Case 3: 1 lvl 3 Succeed from +5 to +6 and 2 fail

9/10 AND 1/10 AND 1/10 = 0.9%

 

Case 4: All 3 lvl 3 Fail from +5 to +6

1/10 AND 1/10 AND 1/10 = 0.1%

 

The chance in cumulative probability is way lower than 18.1%

 

Also, for at least One scenario, you get [ Case 1 OR Case 2 OR Case 3 ] = 81.9%

AND is denoted with x

OR is denoted with +

 

Your probability work is just wrong, hell, your basic substraction is just wrong (1-.729=.271), but it doesn't matter because everything is just wrong, and I'm not on the mood to explain probabilites right now.

 

Just know the answers are:

3/3=.729

2/3=.243

1/3=.027

0/3=.001


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#19 Quoc

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Posted 25 September 2017 - 07:03 AM

Most importantly about probabilities, "should" or "shouldn't" isn't gonna help the case of percentages. It is technically possible to flip a coin with a 50% heads/tails rate 1 million times and it lands on heads or tails every single time as long as the percentage isn't 0% on any sides. Just extremely improbable.

 

I hope you have better luck in the future though! Who knows? Maybe next time the tables will turn.


Edited by Quoc, 25 September 2017 - 07:04 AM.

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#20 Rodnix

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Posted 25 September 2017 - 07:24 AM

Your probability work is just wrong, hell, your basic substraction is just wrong (1-.729=.271), but it doesn't matter because everything is just wrong, and I'm not on the mood to explain probabilites right now.

 

Just know the answers are:

3/3=.729

2/3=.243

1/3=.027

0/3=.001

Oh thanks for pointing that out... I forgot about the other ORs. Thanks, i'll edit my post earlier.


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#21 Rodnix

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Posted 25 September 2017 - 07:32 AM

Most importantly about probabilities, "should" or "shouldn't" isn't gonna help the case of percentages. It is technically possible to flip a coin with a 50% heads/tails rate 1 million times and it lands on heads or tails every single time as long as the percentage isn't 0% on any sides. Just extremely improbable.

 

I hope you have better luck in the future though! Who knows? Maybe next time the tables will turn.

 

Yes absolutely. If we have infinite chances... However, we have finite tries... hence the calculations for the numbers. I got really unlucky to not even get a single +6 after 3 tries. Well, i just have to move along i suppose.


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