271 replies to this topic

[mildcontempt]

the hidden answer: both, actually. though unlikely, you kinda need that 1.2.3.4 effect (which is extremely lucky) to get to +14... and 17 times of not getting to +11 is extremely unlucky. they're both extreme examples of each side of luck though.

i probably should've added that i was only talking about upgrades from +10 to +11 and not anything afterwards. everything after +11 is pure luck or RnG or whatever you want to dub it, i know that. i'm instead complaining about the rates from +10 to +11. nobody should have to go through 20+ (or more) consecutive failures in a row simply trying to get to +11 with a 20% success rate during the event. its ridiculous.

and im talking about a weapon that actually is cursed, because i have above average upgrading rates for my gears, always. 34 tries at a +10 weapon is by far the worst luck i've ever had with any lvl 4 wep/armor. the most it's ever taken me before the gms to +10 a gear is roughly 15 attempts. i've only tried to +14 two other gears, an ami bag which had that 1.2.3.4 effect, and a skullcap which took 3-4 boxes - both awesome instances of luck, by community standards.

however, that same rotten upgrading luck for the [GMS only] is persisting through even the over refine event. i've spend near 1.5k ores and i've had +13 on it close to 20 times now.. some of those times granting me that 1.2.3 effect. i've had it jump from 12 to 13 to 12 to 13 to 12 and back down again. yeah that +14 repeat-deny angers me too, but not as much as seeing that many fails in a row just trying to get to 11. it shouldn't even be allowed to happen - not to me, to you, to anyone. not during the event... not that many times.

 

"nobody should have to go through 20+ (or more) consecutive failures in a row simply trying to get to +11 with a 20% success rate during the event. its ridiculous."

 

If you're talking about the emotional aspect, sure, but probability works the same regardless of it being 10 to 11 or 10 to 14. There is a chance, and though unlikely, it can happen. Think of all the times people go from 10 to 11 in a single attempt and don't bat an eye at it when if we were going to invoke some law of averages abusing fallacy it should take 5-4 attempts before going to +11. 

 

_Should_ has nothing to do with probability, by definition. 

 

"i was only talking about upgrades from +10 to +11 and not anything afterwards. everything after +11 is pure luck or RnG or whatever you want to dub it, i know that."

 

So is everything before +11 m80.

Edited by mildcontempt, 26 November 2017 - 04:20 PM.

[blackCROSSCY]

you guys are forgetting that as a very old game, we most definitely don’t have real rng. With a computer dice roll and pseudo RNG, the computer definitely gives very close to the percentage set by the system for each upgrade (like 20% for 10 to 11) in huge number of tries (i think 20K tries is sufficient since i remember seeing camp doing trial runs for 20K i think to tell us that it does eventually give us the rough %), BUT the individual attempt results will vastly differ base on the seed number for the dice roll.

This means that the 20% doesn’t apply to everyone. In 10K tries the overall result will be 20%, but there almost always will be instances of someone having 10% or less, and someone else having extreme success.

If you’re really trying to be lucky, maybe do it at the same time a lot of ppl are succeeding (very good seed number that supports great rng) OR some time (no idea how long) after a lot of people have masssive failure rates (by mean reversion, after high failure rates system eventually needs more success to reach back its set %). Of course, neither of these are easy to perform as we have no idea how others perform nor the seed dice number.

In certain other games, some smart engineers have been able to decipher the seed number for dice roll in their mmorpg by certain functions like /dice, to acquire very high success rates for their own upgrades/gambling (riding in method 1 above). I personally am not aware of any of such means that our client can see some number generated from server to replicate the same thing.

I however, do believe some people have cracked this code for their insane high success rate (staring at ash huhu. RNG god or actual computer genius?)

Edited by blackCROSSCY, 26 November 2017 - 04:47 PM.

[Fuuton]

@mild, this is sort of what i was getting at ^ and failing to explain. along the lines of what im feeling about it, anyway.

and yeah, "should" has nothing to do with probability as you said, but 4-5 chances is definitely more reasonable in terms of success for the given chance% that are made public to us. even 10 fails is pushing it, but still somewhat more tolerable for motivation/willpower/zenybank than 20 or even 30 consistent fails.

Edited by Fuuton, 26 November 2017 - 04:57 PM.

[mildcontempt]

/shrug

 

Go where your intuition guides you; in the end it doesn't matter what a faceless internet guy (me) says, you're life and experience will be what it will be. Anyway, good luck. 

[Fuuton]

my intuition is telling me to sleep off this bad mood and try again later hah.

but for the record, i'll give anyone's input a listen and even consideration as long as they're aren't attempting to belittle me while trying to get their point across. that's why the other guy got the response he received, and also why our mini convo has no toxic tones.

[BlackMeow]

used 157 ores. trying to +14 my bone circlet. went to +13 6 times but failed. it's now +12 and have 8 ores left. i gave up coz i'm broke 

[LegendaryTorgue]

<Boops>

 

 +18s suck, cos it's not armor or level 4!!!

 

Edited by VModMango, 26 November 2017 - 10:14 PM.
Booping out the drama/quoted post that was removed

[Darksorrow1234]

great collections! 

[Boyeteers]

Daaaang.. pay my bills bro I’m broke. I managed to +13 some of my abusive robes and +12 my nightmare bio gears with 300 hd ores. I’m done. This is just a game anyways. Have fun all.

[markopolong]

Update:
Look at my G.Mace....T__T

This event

+15 Crimson Sword Holy =5 HD
+12 VF True Seyren =20 HD
+12 Tomahawk =18 HD
+12 OMW ME3 =29 HD
+12 OMW =31 HD
+12 HWHB =28 HD
+12 CEB =33 HD
+12 Valk Hammer =45HD
+15 Crimson Mace =194 HD
+14 OMW =1201 HD
+14 G Mace =2544 HD

[YongkySH]

Update:
Look at my G.Mace....T__T

This event

+15 Crimson Sword Holy =5 HD
+12 VF True Seyren =20 HD
+12 Tomahawk =18 HD
+12 OMW ME3 =29 HD
+12 OMW =31 HD
+12 HWHB =28 HD
+12 CEB =33 HD
+12 Valk Hammer =45HD
+15 Crimson Mace =194 HD
+14 OMW =1201 HD
+14 G Mace =2544 HD

that holy crimson sword is blessed by ash

[Nirvanna21]

Ash's RNG extends to other games too. Played 2000+ hours of PoE before I quit and not a single Mirror of Kalandra. Ash rejoins and a few weeks later gets one. The man is the living embodiment of RNG's better half.

[VModMango]

Guys, Cinnamon has already had to warn you about staying on topic. I'm leaving it up to her if she wants to close this thread, but I'm about to dish out warning to players who have had to been repeatedly modded in this topic. Behave.

[Diskence]

Oh no I didn't get to see what he said 

[Fuuton]

@mild thanks for the instinct reminder. hit the sack for a few hours and woke up feeling less crabby. went through more +11 fails but 15xx (this session i was using 600 and i have 447 left. would've been close to 2k if i had used them all.) ores later and it's finally 14'd. thank the globs my digital stabbing session is over.

[Ashuckel]

Ash's RNG extends to other games too. Played 2000+ hours of PoE before I quit and not a single Mirror of Kalandra. Ash rejoins and a few weeks later gets one. The man is the living embodiment of RNG's better half.

And i got 2 exalts on the same Ledge yesterday starting my character on the Mayhem race :T (buts ex are 11c rip)

[Beanbean]

You guys are making me want to +14 my GMS and OMW, ugh! 

[MrBrainFreeze]

+14ed my RK headgear and Lindy Hop, have gone through like 1.5k ores about, though I was trying other gears as well, got +13 quite a few times on items but hitting 14 is not easy.

[LordYggdrasill]

You guys are making me want to +14 my GMS and OMW, ugh! 

 

Yeah, try these, its definitely worth the cost since you are making both yourself and WarpPortal happy.

 

[mamagochi]

Try Try Again

by T. H. Palmer

 

'Tis a lesson you should heed,
If at first you don't succeed,
Try, try again; 

Then your courage should appear,
For if you will persevere,
You will conquer, never fear
Try, try again;

Once or twice, though you should fail,
If you would at last prevail,
Try, try again; 

If we strive, 'tis no disgrace
Though we do not win the race;
What should you do in the case?
Try, try again

If you find your task is hard,
Time will bring you your reward,
Try, try again 

All that other folks can do,
Why, with patience, should not you?
Only keep this rule in view:
Try, try again.

 

Edited by mamagochi, 28 November 2017 - 06:45 PM.

[PervySageMarty]

my intuition is telling me to sleep off this bad mood and try again later hah.

but for the record, i'll give anyone's input a listen and even consideration as long as they're aren't attempting to belittle me while trying to get their point across. that's why the other guy got the response he received, and also why our mini convo has no toxic tones.

 

My intuition is telling me that LegendaryTorgue should marry me.

 

Anyways I can ever see to go +15 as well as anyone else. I only had one piece of gear go +15 and that was my OBMH which is now very useless in todays contemporary RO.

[LordYggdrasill]

My intuition is telling me that LegendaryTorgue should marry me.

 

Anyways I can ever see to go +15 as well as anyone else. I only had one piece of gear go +15 and that was my OBMH which is now very useless in todays contemporary RO.

 

I thought your OBMH is +16 wasnt it? If you have no use for it, give it to me then. I still find it useful as I use sunflower boy, I need to get extra MDEF bypass from OBMH since I cant make use of NCT card combos without a shield.
 

Edited by LordYggdrasill, 29 November 2017 - 05:41 AM.

[Kusanagisama]

If you have no use for it, give it to me then.
 

 

LOL!

[LudovicusHuppert]

I currently have attempted to upgrade these, in this order:

 

+10 Temporal Str Boots to +12 , 4 Carniums spent;

+10 EDA to +12, 8 Carniums spent;

+10 Etran to +12, 48 Carniums spent;

 

I had bought a box with 100 just for the boots, i thought i was lucky with it and tried to upgrade my EDA aswell, and then the Etran. The Etran upgrading wasn't as lucky =/

I was thinking about getting my Temporal Boots to +15, but i don't trust my luck with only 100 Carniums. i got no money nor will to farm, and ppl say it usually takes them 1k~3k to +15 somethig, so nvm.

 

I still wanna try to get my +10 GBR to around +13.

 

edit:

 

+10 GBR to +12, 84 Bradiums. I tried to get it to +13 but no luck =/ It got to +12 on the 7th Bradium the frst time.

+11 GFSS [1] SpVit to +12, 16 Carniums

+11 GFSS [1] SpInt to +12, 6 Carniums

 

Edited by LudovicusHuppert, 07 December 2017 - 08:09 AM.

[Nirvanna21]

I currently have attempted to upgrade these, in this order:

 

+10 Temporal Str Boots to +12 , 4 Carniums spent;

+10 EDA to +12, 8 Carniums spent;

+10 Etran to +12, 48 Carniums spent;

 

I had bought a box with 100 just for the boots, i thought i was lucky with it and tried to upgrade my EDA aswell, and then the Etran. The Etran upgrading wasn't as lucky =/

I was thinking about getting my Temporal Boots to +15, but i don't trust my luck with only 100 Carniums. i got no money nor will to farm, and ppl say it usually takes them 1k~3k to +15 somethig, so nvm.

 

I still wanna try to get my +10 GBR to around +13.

 

Triggered.