So, today I tried refining an item from 4->7 using safe certificates.
First attempt got it to +5, 60% chance of success, great.
But then it failed 12x in a row here, my item is now at +5 and I can’t spend more zeny on certs cuz I have to save for other items...
I mean, c’mon... 40% chance of success and it fails 12 times?
If you do the maths, you will know that the chance of failing 12 times is really really low.
Btw if you don’t know how to calculate it’s something like this:
You calculate how much are the chances of a failed event happens in a row -> (0.6)^12 wich is about 0.002 and that’s 0,2%
In other words, I had 99,8% chance of success by trying 12x and I was able to pull out the 0,2% of disgrace. Ugh, I guess chances are chances after all..
And certs price are bs nowadays...
I want a consolation prize, and only having my item at +6 won’t make me any happier tbh.
Btw, the item was a mere surv. shoes, but that costed me 800m, I’n not gambling with enriched for something at that price range.
Oh god maybe I should just go to bed...
Edited by xTinho, 09 April 2018 - 02:51 PM.