55 replies to this topic

[Orthogon]

 

I respect the source as a fellow math guy, but these statistics appear to be flawed.

 

The most obvious incorrect result is the "Median = 0" for +11 to +12. The median must be greater than or equal to 1 by the nature of the problem (you can't go from +11 to +12 in 0 ore).

 

The results don't indicate whether they are for a user switching to normal Bradium/Carnium for the +10->+11 roll, but from the mean values for +11->+12 I think it can only be realistic if they are NOT switching to normal ores for the free roll.

 

 

I agree with getting rid of the median value from the calculations. Sample size is stated at 100k attempts, so I don't see how skewed sample size can be the issue. But I also agree it's not terribly useful and wouldn't spend time on trying to adjust it.
 

[markoh1988]

+15 cert pls.

 

HAHAHA, this month is my biggest spending in iRO and not getting anything cause Im fully aware of this rng rate.. so play at your own risk man

[coolvampire]

im sorrry to hear that

hope you have a great luck next time, its gambling afterall, cant expect to always win or always lose. 

[Tercanum]

Idk, those numbers don't seem ragey enough for me. Once I tried to refine an excelion shield, it went down to +10 and it took me over 200 hds to even get it back to +12. Plus i was using Carn and HD. So over 400 refines to get +12.

[UzerIuckly22]

I'd sell the hd boxes and save up z to buy the high plus item from another player. Unless its a kvm wep / bio5 headgear. I've been there before.

 

In myy case whenever I hunt for a card, it doesn't seem to drop but when I'm in a rush to level something on the same map, cards drop but I keep winging and missing them

[yauhoilun]

Bro I spent 1000 HD ores last week to get to +14

It was unusual and frustrating for sure but that’s RNG of this game

So you got to +14 twice with 700 HD ores?

You are already luckier than me

[yauhoilun]

I repeatedly failed 15-20 times in a row going from 11 to 12 which is supposed to be what 20% chance?

I was like wtf is going on

[yauhoilun]

Oh forgot to say I was using normal craniums from 10 to 11 at all times…and it still took 1000 HD ores before I hit 14 once…needless to say I felt like crap after

[bearl]

To gamble, you first need to accept that you can afford to lose.
Next is patience.

One of my +15 guardian soul took me 8hours? Of refining.

[Boyeteers]

Again, if y’all refining stuffs like +15, make sure y’all have some items refined to +14 so y’all get “higher chance” of making +15. It’s all rng but you get the point. Feel me?

[ChakriGuard]

I heard, it takes around 10 HD ores "on average" to +15. Maybe you just had a bad day man. For me, my day was worse 1.7k HD and tons of normal ores to +15 lol

One thing you're right. Vets don't have to spend a single dollar. We have hundreds of characters to farm zeny, then we can straight buy whatever items or whatever new cash items ie Sakura wings only 400m. New players gonna have a hard time.

Edited by ChakriGuard, 14 July 2021 - 06:04 PM.

[PervySageMarty]

I heard, it takes around 10 HD ores "on average" to +15. Maybe you just had a bad day man. For me, my day was worst. 1.7k HD and tons of normal ores to +15 lol

One thing you're right. Vets don't have to spend a single dollar. We have hundreds of characters to farm zeyn, then we can straight buy whatever items or whatever new cash items ie Sakura wings only 400m hahah

The term "cash item" everyone uses nowadays to complain in topics such as this really highlight how lightly we use the word now away from its original intention.

[sokernet]

sometimes it took 4 hd ores to get me +15 armor but the latest one is 10b worth of hd bradium for +18 Survival Rod

[Argetlahm]

Since refines will be going up and down between +11 onwards don't expect the 15% chance to be true, it's way lower than what is shown/what you see, since you'll be expending so many ores before going to +14.

From what I see, blame the "Nerf" for Guardian Soul, Originally it's bonuses were at +7 onwards, +9 onwards and +12 onwards, and since in IRO you've got so many refinement protection stuff, the "Studio" gave the nerf.

 

RNG will damage your pride and wallet when you expect to get what you want or what you're looking for.

 

RNG gives you what you want when you least expect it, and then you won't feel disappointment.

[sokernet]

25 times going +13 not single one going +14. what a bad day

[gorgoroth1]

"Surprise" Refine Rate Increase Event, "wasted" so much hd carnium just to +13/+14 on this event, luckily my luck with kachua's keys covered most of it /pif

[KielConstantine]

+15 cert pls.

 

HAHAHA, this month is my biggest spending in iRO and not getting anything cause Im fully aware of this rng rate.. so play at your own risk man

 

I spend $200 last week. Instead proceed for refining bull-_-, I sold all the kachua HD ores & enriched ores via vending in prontera..

 

Guess what? I earn 8B in total. Jajajajajajajajaja

 

I saw someone selling +15 Guardian Soul at 5B or so.. It is better buying straight from other players rather refining it like a madman

[CritQuick]

I understand your frustration. This is the bad side of RNG.

 

Getting to +15 and up is never easy. There are some people that manage to do it in few boxes but they are just extremely lucky. They are like the outliers in a sample size.

 

I spent around 20 boxes to get +15 while some of my friends only managed with 7-10 boxes. My lesson here is never expect that I would have the same outcome with the people showing off that they manage to refine an item with only x amount of boxes.

 

Like what others mentioned, refining is a risk so be prepared of the losses. I never refined for profit, I only refine what I need. Sadly, people who refine successfully are mostly business players (Don't get me wrong here, I just don't like some of the business players in-game because of their behavior). They have a lot of zeny / real money capital so they are more willing for the risk involved as they are motivated by the so-called gains.

 

At the end of the day, refining is not for everyone. 

 

 

 

[markoh1988]

I spend $200 last week. Instead proceed for refining bull-_-, I sold all the kachua HD ores & enriched ores via vending in prontera..

 

Guess what? I earn 8B in total. Jajajajajajajajaja

 

I saw someone selling +15 Guardian Soul at 5B or so.. It is better buying straight from other players rather refining it like a madman

 

That good. Refining just like gambling. addictive hahahaha

[RonSilver]

the probability does seem lower actually, but i cannot rule out it may be due to my bad luck. My average +12's per HD box is 9 currently, should be around 20 with a 20% from +11 to +12...

[Meddler01]

Bro, try switching items when upgrading--works for me, i hope you'll experience the same. 

 

Also try upgrading multiple items, atleast 3 items? do a rotation in upgrading.

 

I got 3 times +14 on my crimson katar, stayed and lose hope at +14,  but I used just 100 HD Ores that time(because i'm a cheapskate).

 

 

I hope this vid may be useful to you

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Meddler01, 21 July 2021 - 12:08 AM.

[Ultimate]

What kind of jerk off made this system, not only do you have to pay real money to get the item that prevents your item from being permanently destroyed but even having bought 700 HDCranium i legit got no where...+14 twice it says 15% is say that number isn't accurate in the slightest you are lying to us the probability you have stated is obviously not true at all.  To put this in perspective every 100 WP costs 1$ each box costs 1200 wp hence 12 dollars, i bought 7 of those so at a grand total of $84 I legitly got no where that is BULL-_-.  This game is sham i can get so much more for $84 than a goddamn clicking simulator...you need to implement some kind of incremental return like honestly SEVEN HUNDRED yielded NOTHING....NOTHING.

 

To new people don't bother refining its too expensive the system is a con, straight up a con you have better odds winning carnival games, ya carnival games and slot machines are less rigged than the failure rate on refining.  You don't want people to go out and purchase from other players but make the ability to acquire what you want any other way near impossible...you have people in this game with endless Zeny, and this doesn't impact them cause they can just buy the boxes, this impacts the little guy and only the little guy the cost of entry is restrictively high.  ADJUST YOUR GREED MODEL, this is far to punishing far to low and I did this during AN INCREASE IN CHANCES... WHAT A LOAD OF CRAP, WHICH MEANS ODDS ARE EVEN LOWER....its a scam straight up.

 

Fact you have better odds of being struck by lightning, and a meteor in the same day, within the same hour.

 

So much to unpack here, but basically the refine system is pretty good compared to the bad ole days. You can basically +12 anything in the whole game with minimal effort. However, a lot of people buy zeny, and a lot of +14 or higher equip are just for the real money sellers. Basically, you need to know when to stop. If your goal constantly upgrade or make items +14, you will always lose money, unless you've got the system down to perfect like the overseas zeny sellers.

[Pulut]

"Surprise" refine event 

[Keith]

Only upgrade the items to whatever refine rate they need for their effect.  Anything else you upgrade that isn't giving you any direct bonus from the item description or a combo is a waste of time and resources.  Like a +16 Evil Dragon Armor is irrelevant.  Doesn't make it anymore valuable and gives next to no benefit outside the extra hard d.  The only things that over upgrading can give some merit on is weapons.  Weapons over upgraded can improve damage significantly depending on what class skill you are using.

[YongkySH]

iRO needs more of those instant upgrade certificate, instant +14 at least