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Black smith +6 reported NPC odds not Factual.


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#1 bottomfeed

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Posted 08 October 2021 - 01:56 PM

Bugged smithy internal math.
 
I have been running the event quest for days, and have spent 400 Elunium on upgrades. I have not received one +7 on event gear.
 
The problem seems to be getting +6. I hit +5 with the smiths predicted probabilities spot on. But i have only hit +6 6 times at best in 400 Elunium spent on upgrades.
 
This is outside of probabilities that would be acceptable to mathematicians. I put the odds achieved after that run of 9.3% odds of hitting level 6.
 
The more tested a statistic is the truer it is. so the odds of attempting +6 60 times from +5 and getting 6 items as a result work out to 9.3%. Which is not at all what the black smith tells you. I have Tidied these numbers and estimated so i am sure i will be brushed off here as its so easy to discredit when the alternative is work. But I am certain enough something has gone wrong that i wont touch the NPC black smith likely ever again, opting for the player crafting system instead; in my opinion you should really look into this system, especially because of the implications implicit that it may have been a choice and not a mistake made in order to drive cash sales.
 
 
I would have sent this privately but i wouldn't know who best to send this to, as I don't like pointing out potential shady practices without evidence of intent as people on the internet view suggestion of possibility as reality. So please after the appropriate person has read this message feel free to delete it, I will not be wounded.

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#2 bottomfeed

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Posted 09 October 2021 - 04:45 PM

Wow and then i looked at the views on these reports. Clearly no one cares about anything here any more. So many bug reports with 0 views. You should just close the section if your not going to read them. Wish i had noticed before i took the time for you.


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#3 CMMayari

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Posted 12 October 2021 - 10:10 AM

There have been times where posts on the forums have shown "0 views" despite being viewed several times by multiple people, as I've tested in the past with myself and other people. So the view counts aren't always accurate.

 

As for your post, I will have the team follow up on it just in case there's anything weird going on. 


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