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Bugged smithy internal math.
I have been running the event quest for days, and have spent 400 Elunium on upgrades. I have not received one +7 on event gear.
The problem seems to be getting +6. I hit +5 with the smiths predicted probabilities spot on. But i have only hit +6 6 times at best in 400 Elunium spent on upgrades.
This is outside of probabilities that would be acceptable to mathematicians. I put the odds achieved after that run of 9.3% odds of hitting level 6.
The more tested a statistic is the truer it is. so the odds of attempting +6 60 times from +5 and getting 6 items as a result work out to 9.3%. Which is not at all what the black smith tells you. I have Tidied these numbers and estimated so i am sure i will be brushed off here as its so easy to discredit when the alternative is work. But I am certain enough something has gone wrong that i wont touch the NPC black smith likely ever again, opting for the player crafting system instead; in my opinion you should really look into this system, especially because of the implications implicit that it may have been a choice and not a mistake made in order to drive cash sales.
I would have sent this privately but i wouldn't know who best to send this to, as I don't like pointing out potential shady practices without evidence of intent as people on the internet view suggestion of possibility as reality. So please after the appropriate person has read this message feel free to delete it, I will not be wounded.
