86 replies to this topic

[Heimdallr]

I will actually run the 10,000 run in a controlled setting to put it to rest. But that will not happen until next week, as I would rather have our thursday maintenance have what I posted in it.

[BlackPotato]

We'll update hte websites then to state it just increases drop rate.

I can't make a convincing statement of how it does without releasing formulas that I don't have. I know the increase is there, and it is indeed set to 50%, but it does not work as

50% drop of item + (drop*.50) = how often it falls on the ground (75% in this case)
and even if it did, the gum would play hell with these percents because it works on a seperate system of enhancing the rate of dropping. On some items it is much more easy to see its benefit than on others.

It is working precisely how it is supposed to work but it in no way is easy to explain succinctly in a short sentance to a player that doesn't understand how the drops work. So we'll just change it to "Increased Drop rate of items from Monsters" and be done with it.

If anyone asks that enhancement is indeed 50%.

glad that your looking into it and going to do the testing "sometime after maint", please look at the other bugs reply i sent you as well

[AtlasThunderbeef]

I will actually run the 10,000 run in a controlled setting to put it to rest. But that will not happen until next week, as I would rather have our thursday maintenance have what I posted in it.

Will this be with HE Gum, or regular Gum?

[Kitten]

We'll update hte websites then to state it just increases drop rate.

No.

This is not a solution and you are delusional to think otherwise.

[DarkwingGT]

Just changing the description on the website do seem a little shady. It would definitely give carte blanche to make it be whatever they wanted and still be correct. Not that they don't have the right to do that, but it seems like it would be very misleading to customers looking to purchase the gum.

Edited by DarkwingGT, 11 May 2011 - 12:53 PM.

[DrAzzy]

Let's use this large item run to solve the question of how gum works in general (whether the old Multiple Rolls theory is correct, or whether it is now "Capped Multiplication" as doddler has claimed, ie, simple multiplication of drop rate, capped at 90%.)

This can be achieved by intelligently choosing the drop rates of the items used. We need drop rates high enough that the differences between Capped Multiplication and Multiple Rolls will be visible.

So:

45% - maximum difference between capped multiplication and multiple rolls for normal gum
With normal gum, this will drop 90% if it works on capped multiplication, but only 70% if it works via multiple rolls

60% - maximum difference between capped multiplication and multiple rolls for VIP drop bonus
This will drop 90% for VIP if it works on capped multiplication, but only 75% if it works on multiple rolls

30% - will make it clear whether the VIP stacks the way you want it to or the way you don't want it to with gum.

So we want test monsters dropping one item at 60%, another item at 45%, and a third item at 30%.

I had alot more numbers, but accidentally hit backspace while the text window didn't have focus, and it ate my 2-page essay.

The critical tests to run are: non-VIP with normal gum, VIP with no gum, VIP with normal gum. These numbers would have to be chosen differently if using HE gum in the test runs with HE gum.

[olbaid]

Please pick something that drops card instead of mushrooms for the test.

[BlackPotato]

Just changing the description on the website do seem a little shady. It would definitely give carte blanche to make it be whatever they wanted and still be correct. Not that they don't have the right to do that, but it seems like it would be very misleading to customers looking to purchase the gum.

very much so. a car company cant give your car a warranty and then change its terms half way through because they cant figure out whats wrong with it. they could give you a new car, but that doesnt exactly fix the problem in this analogy when it comes to just changing the name of the item post sale. it would be as if they changed any in games item description to "make it work"

Let's use this large item run to solve the question of how gum works in general (whether the old Multiple Rolls theory is correct, or whether it is now "Capped Multiplication" as doddler has claimed, ie, simple multiplication of drop rate, capped at 90%.)

This can be achieved by intelligently choosing the drop rates of the items used. We need drop rates high enough that the differences between Capped Multiplication and Multiple Rolls will be visible.

So:

45% - maximum difference between capped multiplication and multiple rolls for normal gum
With normal gum, this will drop 90% if it works on capped multiplication, but only 70% if it works via multiple rolls

60% - maximum difference between capped multiplication and multiple rolls for VIP drop bonus
This will drop 90% for VIP if it works on capped multiplication, but only 75% if it works on multiple rolls

30% - will make it clear whether the VIP stacks the way you want it to or the way you don't want it to with gum.

So we want test monsters dropping one item at 60%, another item at 45%, and a third item at 30%.

I had alot more numbers, but accidentally hit backspace while the text window didn't have focus, and it ate my 2-page essay.

The critical tests to run are: non-VIP with normal gum, VIP with no gum, VIP with normal gum. These numbers would have to be chosen differently if using HE gum in the test runs with HE gum.

from old forums post, which was right after vip was instated. i cannot stress enough, that this crap has gone this long without being looked into? over a friggin month...

VIP bonus appears to be a gum-type bonus, which would of course finally disprove the theory (which, after everyone (including myself) believed it for years, was recently renounced by Doddler in favor of a "flat multiplier capped at 90%" model) that bubble gum gives "multiple chances" for an item to drop (because you can't have 50% of a chance).

If it's true that the VIP bonus is a gum-type bonus, and the multiple chances theory is incorrect, then gum would need the same treatment as manuals got, to correct VIP awards - and that still wouldn't get items' drop rate past 90%. This is most relevant, of course, to endless tower.
On the other hand, it would result in higher rates for VIP players effected by the drop penalty.

This post has been edited by DrAzzy: 08 April 2011 - 05:35 PM

azzy feel free to correct me if you feel like i am misrepresenting your quote. what im getting at. is there was a marked difference with exp/drops when vip (can we get a new name for this? vip stands for Very Important Person last time i checked. no one in their right mind would be at a night club or casino that treater their vips with this much disregard) was implemented. and it took enough complaining just to make the gms LOOK at the exp modifier to show that there was a huge difference. when it came to exp, the problem wasnt with non vip and gum (i.e valk) but with the modifier that is on premium or vip accounts. the reason im so adamant about this is because we paid for a service and product that has been proven not to work as it should, and the best answer we had until today was "nah, its working". i am glad that heim is going to run a 10,000 test, but if its really a true representation, then azzys idea about each modifier needing to be used is correct.

http://forums.warppo...__1#entry372060

Edited by BlackPotato, 11 May 2011 - 04:50 PM.

[brokenguy]

Just killed 1000 Mandagora
here's the drop rate

90% Stem
3.5% Green Herb
3% Shoot
0.5% Green Live
0.3% Spear [4]
.1% Gaia Whip
.04% Four Leaf Clover
0.2% Mandragora Card

With VIP expected drop rate(From what Heim said)
Expected Amount Dropped
100% Stem 1,000 886
5.25% Green Herb 52 53
4.5% Shoot 45 43
0.75% Green Live 7 6
0.45% Spear [4] 4 2
0.15% Gaia Whip 1 1
0.06% Four Leaf Clover 0 0
0.03% Mandragora Card 0 0


Killed 1000 Wormtail(VIP) Expected Amount Dropped

82.5% Pointed Scale 825 829
1.5% Green Lace 15 22
1.05% Yellow Herb 10 12
0.9% Green Live 9 11
0.45% Pike [4] 4 3
0.45% Emveretarcon 4 4
0.09% Emerald 0 0
0.03% Wormtail Card 0 0

Found a few bots in the process, but it seems like VIP is indeed multi but capped at 90%. I have not check if it is working with gum correctly or not. Sucks for the last boss of ET, never will have a 100% drop rate on those item anymore... worth quite a lot of mil-s for each one.

[Gantrithor]

Thanks for all the help, those who provided it such as broken guy. I'm very sure I've come close to unravelling the mystery, but I have to go now, so I'll do it tonight.

From my tests I have enough to be certain that gums are in fact multiplactive with a 90% cap.

I just have to work out, how VIP works (I'm sure it works in a way that mimics the effect of the old system) and then how VIP interacts with gums.

The reason I did HE Gum instead of regular gum is because regular gums are untradable, and I could not get one onto my non-VIP account.
=================================


Doing final confirmation test, then finally eating, then uploading results.

If the final test confirms my findings, then the solution is actually embarassingly simple!

Actually, eating first!

Edited by Gantrithor, 12 May 2011 - 02:06 AM.

[BlackPotato]

Thanks for all the help, those who provided it such as broken guy. I'm very sure I've come close to unravelling the mystery, but I have to go now, so I'll do it tonight.

From my tests I have enough to be certain that gums are in fact multiplactive with a 90% cap.

I just have to work out, how VIP works (I'm sure it works in a way that mimics the effect of the old system) and then how VIP interacts with gums.

The reason I did HE Gum instead of regular gum is because regular gums are untradable, and I could not get one onto my non-VIP account.
=================================


Doing final confirmation test, then finally eating, then uploading results.

If the final test confirms my findings, then the solution is actually embarassingly simple!

Actually, eating first!

glad your looking into it. the issue is with gum any kind and vip. testing without vip and gum would just be unreliable

Edited by BlackPotato, 12 May 2011 - 06:57 AM.

[Gantrithor]

Okay, instead of doing the confirmation test, I watched TV.

I'll just post what I've found now and do then do the test, then update to see if it's right.

• Gums are working.
  
  • Gums work multiplactively, not re-rolls.
  • Gums are capped at 90%
• VIP is working. However, VIP now gives the 50% in the same fashion as gums and therefore is capped at 90%

Before, premium servers just had the base rates increased by 50%. A subscription member on gum would then have the gum effect multiply the increased rate, e.g. 20% on Free Server->30% on Subscription Server-> 90% on Subscription server with HE Gum.

The way it works now, is that VIP and Gum give the same type of bonus, the bonus is added together, so a 20% drop is boosted by +250% to 70% with HE Gum.

To confirm this, I'm now testing VIP with regular gum and I expect my drops to be increased by +150%. (I've already used VIP + HE Gum to find that my drops were increased by +250%)

I should expect the drops to be;

Mushroom Spore	1.8 (double 0.9 cap)
Poison Spore 	0.9 (capped)
Feather		0.5
Elemental Stone 0.225
Alcohol		0.0125
Mixing Reagent	0.0125
Dew Laden Moss	0.005	

-EDIT-
The test has confirmed my results. I'll update tomorrow night.

Edited by Gantrithor, 12 May 2011 - 09:33 AM.

[DarkwingGT]

So the whole re-roll thing with VIP is just a red herring?

So really it sounds like the formula is (drop chance * (VIP bonus + Gum Bonus))?
And before it was ((drop chance * VIP Bonus) * Gum Bonus)?

That doesn't sound so bad if that's truly the case. Or am I misunderstanding this?

[BlackPotato]

So the whole re-roll thing with VIP is just a red herring?

So really it sounds like the formula is (drop chance * (VIP bonus + Gum Bonus))?
And before it was ((drop chance * VIP Bonus) * Gum Bonus)?

That doesn't sound so bad if that's truly the case. Or am I misunderstanding this?

thats how it seems to me too, yes i believe thats what hes saying. server bonus and drop chance along with the gum, and as it is now its adding in, which would be true to the fact that vak rates intended for each server and gum only are the same. if its the same problem as vip then its a multiplicative problem in the formula

Edited by BlackPotato, 12 May 2011 - 10:38 AM.

[DrAzzy]

azzy feel free to correct me if you feel like i am misrepresenting your quote. what im getting at. is there was a marked difference with exp/drops when vip (can we get a new name for this? vip stands for Very Important Person last time i checked. no one in their right mind would be at a night club or casino that treater their vips with this much disregard) was implemented. and it took enough complaining just to make the gms LOOK at the exp modifier to show that there was a huge difference. when it came to exp, the problem wasnt with non vip and gum (i.e valk) but with the modifier that is on premium or vip accounts. the reason im so adamant about this is because we paid for a service and product that has been proven not to work as it should, and the best answer we had until today was "nah, its working". i am glad that heim is going to run a 10,000 test, but if its really a true representation, then azzys idea about each modifier needing to be used is correct.

Yeah - you got a few things in your post that I didn't bother to retype, but had included in my original.

I'm not sure what the correct way to deal with the changes to gum is - If it's a flat multiplier, that's WAY BETTER than multiple rolls, and boosting the drop rate advantage of gums further for VIPs might raise balance questions. Then again, if it was flat multiplier pre-renewal, then it'd be the same now as it was on premium prenewal with that modifier, which wasn't a disaster, so go ahead with it.

In any case, it's clear that this isn't a case of Heimdallr or any other GM knowingly screwing the VIPs over, but rather, a case of the GMs not recognizing what may well be a silent change to game mechanics that came with renewal (changing from multiple roll to capped multiplier - i'm not sure that we'd ever conclusively proved that gum was a multiple roll in pre-renewal - i don't think anyone had ever done a truly rigorous test, but the numbers agreed fairly well. For a long time, the premiums didn't have many monsters that, after premium drop rate modifier, had the proper drop rates for testing.

(snip)

These tests are useless for doing anything other than confirming that VIP and gum effects don't seem to help as much as they premium server bonus did for items with high drop rates.

You need to go for something with drop rates around 45-50% in order to really figure out what's going on here.

[Dantemss]

The 90% cap is really intriguing for me. Oh well.

Assuming the 90% cap is right, here's the main difference between Premium-GUM and VIP-GUM (if rates are low enough not to reach 90%):

Base rate: R
Premium rate: P = 1.5 * R

Premium-GUM (before f2p): P + (2 * P) = 3 * P = 4.5 * R

VIP-GUM (after f2p): R + (0.5 * R) + (2 * R) = 3.5 * R

As you see, you premium dudes apparently lost 100% of the base drop rate on gum with the premium to VIP change.

If VIP and gum only stack additively, VIP only gives you a 0.5/3 = 16.67% increase over non-VIP gum.

Edited by Dantemss, 12 May 2011 - 12:35 PM.

[DarkwingGT]

In any case, it's clear that this isn't a case of Heimdallr or any other GM knowingly screwing the VIPs over, but rather, a case of the GMs not recognizing what may well be a silent change to game mechanics that came with renewal (changing from multiple roll to capped multiplier - i'm not sure that we'd ever conclusively proved that gum was a multiple roll in pre-renewal - i don't think anyone had ever done a truly rigorous test, but the numbers agreed fairly well. For a long time, the premiums didn't have many monsters that, after premium drop rate modifier, had the proper drop rates for testing.

I definitely wasn't thinking it was intentional skullduggery for sure. If it truly functions as most speculate now, (drop chance * (VIP + Gum)), that seems acceptable. The wording on the gum is a little vague at that point but unfortunately that's a problem with English, not the gum. So saying "It triples your chance" is pretty accurate. It might benefit from a little wording like "It triples your chance. Additive with VIP. Cannot go past 90%." or something like that to clarify.

Edited by DarkwingGT, 12 May 2011 - 12:39 PM.

[brokenguy]

I was just testing what the VIP bonus did and it showed that it's a flat multi with a cap at 90%. Wormtail drop pointed scale at a 55%, so with a flat multi of 1.5x or 50% increase it would be 82.5% and with the re-roll theory it would be ~ 62%. This shows that it's a flat multi.

With the first test, I was trying to show that it do not get to 100% drop rate and also to find out if it's a re-roll or a flat multi. This also bring me to the next test with 55% drop rate.

Wish I have the time and money to test out gum and HE gum with VIP but I do not, so oo well. Next step is VIP with drop penalty. Maybe with gum and stuff as well... once gum are cheaper with zeny.

[IronFist]

Okay, instead of doing the confirmation test, I watched TV.

I'll just post what I've found now and do then do the test, then update to see if it's right.

• Gums are working.
  
  • Gums work multiplactively, not re-rolls.
  • Gums are capped at 90%
• VIP is working. However, VIP now gives the 50% in the same fashion as gums and therefore is capped at 90%

Before, premium servers just had the base rates increased by 50%. A subscription member on gum would then have the gum effect multiply the increased rate, e.g. 20% on Free Server->30% on Subscription Server-> 90% on Subscription server with HE Gum.

The way it works now, is that VIP and Gum give the same type of bonus, the bonus is added together, so a 20% drop is boosted by +250% to 70% with HE Gum.

To confirm this, I'm now testing VIP with regular gum and I expect my drops to be increased by +150%. (I've already used VIP + HE Gum to find that my drops were increased by +250%)

I should expect the drops to be;

Mushroom Spore	1.8 (double 0.9 cap)
Poison Spore 	0.9 (capped)
Feather		0.5
Elemental Stone 0.225
Alcohol		0.0125
Mixing Reagent	0.0125
Dew Laden Moss	0.005	

-EDIT-
The test has confirmed my results. I'll update tomorrow night.

Mushroom -50%(level-size) hmm-mm added last so 300%-50%= 150%?
MVP 300% Drop Rate?

What level is a mushroom, im sure you would be at least lvl 20 killing poring defenseless hells spawn eggs. Overall your just tooo high

Edited by IronFist, 12 May 2011 - 02:11 PM.

[Gantrithor]

There was a no drop penalty event when I tested this.

Regular Bubblegum is +100% as the item description says or x2
HE Bubblegum is +200% as the item description says or x3

VIP is +50% as it says or said on the website, 1.5x

Combined you get 2.5x and 3.5x for regular gums and HE gums respectively.

Those type of bonuses are capped at 90%
--
In the old system, from what I gather, there was no actual bonus from being subscribed, the 'bonus' came from setting the drop rates to 1.5x on subscription servers.

Because of this, in the old system, you would expect this.

Subscription x1.5, uncapped.

Subscription + Regular Gum, Base rate x1.5, then +100%, effectively giving 3x.

Subscription + HE Gum, Base Rate x1.5, then +200%, effectively giving 4.5x
--
It is entirely possible that re-roll theory was never true in the first place, it was the base rate change of 1.5x which nullified the 90% cap effect.

[jax5]

The drop mechanic cannot be simple multiplier with cap 90%, because it would not properly explain various occurred phenomena.

Example 1: Green Ale event.

It began with ordinary level penalty applied and ended with it removed.

For characters with max level penalty using HE gum, a multiplicative model predict doubles drop rate (because max level penalty is 50% of normal drop rate). For those who reported around 1000 ale-equivalent coins/hr, after level penalty removal, their reported rates did not increase to 2000/hr or near (considering time involved in looting).

Example 2: Christmas event undelivered gifts in toy factory instance.

In the beginning, undelivered gifts did not ordinarily drop from monsters. During that time, gum usage resulted in frequent undelivered gift drops. A simple multiplicative model would predict gum have no effect on drop rate (since all multiples of zero are zero).

An adapted general model:
(non-iterative, does not consider 1.5x or 2x drops events)

Final drop value is a linear combination of various drop values (additive, not multiplicative).

Final drop value = base drop value - level penalty + VIP + gum

Assumptions, restrictions, and implications:

Spoiler

Assumption: Final drop value is an additive combination of specific drop roll values (base, level penalty, VIP, gum)
Assumption: Every item has a pre-set base drop value between 1 and 9999.
Assumption: A drop roll is a generated number between 0 and 9999 (10,000 total numbers). An item is dropped when its roll is same or less than its final drop value.
Assumption: Regular and HE gum drop values are mutually exclusive.
Assumption: Max level penalty is -50% base; bubble gum is +100% base; HE gum is +200% base


Restriction: After-decimal values on drop values are truncated at each step. (has not been tested)
Restriction: Final drop chance set to 9000 (~90%) if 1) base drop value is <= 9000 and 2) pre-restriction final drop value > 9000. (some supporting data; not completely tested)


Implication: Every specific bonus drop value (level penalty, VIP, gum) is independent of each other. (Seems obvious but has not been rigorously tested)
Implication: VIP and gum ignore level penalty. Drop-penalty removal (such as by an event) would be similar to a ~1.17x event for VIP/HE gum users killing monsters with max level penalty.

Example: card drop rate event, VIP/HE gum character with max level penalty

Final card drop value = 1 - 50%*1 + 50%*1 + 200%*1
Final card drop value = 1 - 0 + 0 + 2 = 3

Note: drop penalty and VIP modifiers have been truncated to 0.

Predicted result: Drop success on roll of 0, 1, 2, or 3. Drop chance = 4/10,000 = 0.04%, meaning card drop rates are unaffected by level penalty/VIP and only doubled by HE gum.


Additional comments: I haven't seen enough/analyzed enough data to propose a plausible iterative model. Also, I don't think iterative and non-interative models are necessarily mutually exclusive.

Edited by jax5, 13 May 2011 - 05:17 AM.

[rldorrall]

sounds about right i spent 10 he gums at morroc incarnations with the drop mod event and didnt get nothing as compared to the none vip system i used to get 1 rare drop per gum with out the drop mod so there has to be something wrong somewhere someone needs to test it on the harder to get items as compared to the items that drop in mass amounts

Edited by rldorrall, 13 May 2011 - 05:34 AM.

[Gantrithor]

I tested this during the no drop penalty event and therefore it does not factor in the drop penalty. In order to test how the drop penalty factors in, I would have to wait for the no drop penalty event to end.

VIP was launched on 2011-04-06, the St. Patrick's Day Event (Green Ale) began on 2011-03-10 and the Holiday Event (Undelivered Boxes) began on 2010-12-16, both of these were before the introduction of VIP.

[BlackPotato]

ganthrithor, you missed jax's point, but your both kind of stating the same stuff in a different way. what your doing is correct

[brokenguy]

Basically trying to figure out when does drop penalty kicks in is another test we have to do later when the drop penalty is in.

Drop penalty is thought to be in before gums, well that is what Heim said in a post sometime ago.