Case and point. Everything evens out over time. So...if a lot of successes happen from +4 -> +5, then a lot of failures will happen too. It's just a matter of time.
When you consider how many people upgrade in one day at that NPC, I highly doubt that you've found a bug with upgrading. I remember going 4 -> 5 -> 4 -> 5 -> 4 -> 5 -> 4 -> 5. But then there are also people that go 4 -> 5, 4-> 5, 4 -> 5, 4 -> 5, 4 -> 5
This is true, and I've seen it happen a lot. One of my guildmates tends to be the victim a lot of the time, similar to the OP, because he will spend millions of zeny trying to get upgrades, or slotted elvens, or something related to a statistic, and fail numerous times. Then one of our other guildmates will go right after him and get it on their first try.
I've never thought of doing it the way Ultimate suggested (supplying useless gears to upgrade to even out the chances). Then again, I hardly EVER upgrade past +4, it's just not worth the zeny to me when I'm still trying to get other gears. I'd rather get all the gears I need to +4 and then work on the "penultimate" piece of equipment, while I still have decent equipment to level and collect items.
Edited by Nilami, 26 May 2011 - 01:11 PM.