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Average # of Kills to get a Card


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#1 advoe

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Posted 07 November 2011 - 04:33 PM

Hello,

Just curious what the average number of monsters it takes to get the card drop. When I was going for a Sohee card I think I got it prior to 1,000 kills. However, now that I am going for a Peco Peco card, I have killed more then 2,500 and still no card. FYI - I am on the Ymir server with VIP status (if that makes a difference).

Does anyone know if the bubble gum will up the chance of the card drop? At what point do you become unlucky with getting a card to drop?
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#2 Helios0

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Posted 07 November 2011 - 04:44 PM

Zoned into mines 2 killed the first stove and boom a card..


the chance is .01% but there's always dumb luck and Horrible Luck involved


i once found 2 geographer cards over the course of 20 min and have yet to find a penomena card after hundreds of thousands destroyed..
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#3 EvilLoynis

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Posted 07 November 2011 - 04:59 PM

Have to agree with the luck assessment above.

I to have hunted thousands of guys with no card.

Also did last weeks Rachel Sacntuary turn in of Hodremlin/Seeker. First to third Hodremlin killed I got his card.

Repeated turn in's after and no more cards :mellow:
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#4 FoxyWoxy

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Posted 07 November 2011 - 06:19 PM

% means chance and nothing else, game does not care how many you mobs you killed. I once got two 0.03% items right after the other.

Though to answer your question, the way people ESTIMATE an average
100%=1 average
10%=10
1%=100
0.1%=1,000
0.01%=10,000

Edited by FoxyWoxy, 07 November 2011 - 06:19 PM.

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#5 Rafa07

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Posted 08 November 2011 - 08:14 PM

% means chance and nothing else, game does not care how many you mobs you killed. I once got two 0.03% items right after the other.

Though to answer your question, the way people ESTIMATE an average
100%=1 average
10%=10
1%=100
0.1%=1,000
0.01%=10,000


that is 100% correct but remember dont be sad if you kill 10,000 and didnt drop any card you can even kill 30,000 and no card or 500 and 3 cards its all a matter of luck
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#6 Periphery

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Posted 08 November 2011 - 09:10 PM

Though it is 0.1% so it's an average of 1000.
I'm also curious to understand when they lowered this from the average of 10,000.
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#7 KitanaWalker

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Posted 08 November 2011 - 09:39 PM

thought cards were .02%, which i believe by your logic is 5000 kills. but I don't think it works that way.
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#8 FoxyWoxy

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Posted 08 November 2011 - 09:46 PM

Though it is 0.1% so it's an average of 1000.
I'm also curious to understand when they lowered this from the average of 10,000.

...cards never got their chance lowered.
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#9 superramen

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Posted 08 November 2011 - 10:47 PM

% means chance and nothing else, game does not care how many you mobs you killed. I once got two 0.03% items right after the other.

Though to answer your question, the way people ESTIMATE an average
100%=1 average
10%=10
1%=100
0.1%=1,000
0.01%=10,000


Posted Image
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#10 FoxyWoxy

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Posted 08 November 2011 - 11:53 PM

either...
a) people are trolling (I REALLY hope this is the case)
B ) people can't calculate 100/0.01

Edited by FoxyWoxy, 08 November 2011 - 11:53 PM.

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#11 mikibong

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Posted 09 November 2011 - 12:26 AM

either...
a) people are trolling (I REALLY hope this is the case)
B ) people can't calculate 100/0.01

It's B sadly...
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#12 DrAzzy

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Posted 09 November 2011 - 12:45 PM

This thread is a very sad statement about the American education system.

On average you should get 1 card per 5000 monsters killed. But that's the average, just like how, on average, when flipping coins, you'll see one heads for every two coin tosses.
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#13 KitanaWalker

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Posted 09 November 2011 - 01:15 PM

This thread is a very sad statement about the American education system.

On average you should get 1 card per 5000 monsters killed. But that's the average, just like how, on average, when flipping coins, you'll see one heads for every two coin tosses.

Believe that's what i said.
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#14 FoxyWoxy

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Posted 09 November 2011 - 02:08 PM

Believe that's what i said.

but I don't think it works that way.

Contradicting x_X
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#15 KitanaWalker

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Posted 09 November 2011 - 02:36 PM

On average it should take 5000 kills to turn up any monster card, but that number doesn't really have any bearing because you could get it in 1 kill, or not get it after 100,000 cards.
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#16 FoxyWoxy

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Posted 09 November 2011 - 02:52 PM

In which case FOUR people including me stating there was no guarantee, you reply

but I don't think it works that way.

cover up much?
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#17 Rafa07

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Posted 09 November 2011 - 03:02 PM

This thread is a very sad statement about the American education system.

On average you should get 1 card per 5000 monsters killed. But that's the average, just like how, on average, when flipping coins, you'll see one heads for every two coin tosses.

the rates arent 1/1/1 anymore?
or you are talking about this particular situation(with Vip)

@edit i didnt notice that he had vip status

Edited by Rafa07, 09 November 2011 - 03:05 PM.

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#18 FoxyWoxy

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Posted 09 November 2011 - 03:29 PM

the rates arent 1/1/1 anymore?
or you are talking about this particular situation(with Vip)

@edit i didnt notice that he had vip status


Awhile ago I forget when, 0.01% was said to not actually exist. I forget the whole mechanics behind it but apperently 0.02 is as low as the game can go.
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#19 KitanaWalker

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Posted 09 November 2011 - 04:07 PM

In which case FOUR people including me stating there was no guarantee, you reply

cover up much?

What's your problem? It's not my fault none of you could do math.

Edited by KitanaWalker, 09 November 2011 - 04:08 PM.

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#20 advoe

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Posted 13 November 2011 - 06:44 PM

I am unbelievably unlucky. I so far have 7,200 Bill of Birds in my Kafra storage and still no Peco Peco card. Does anyone know if the Bubblegum or HE Bubblegum helps up the chances or does it not apply to cards? I have become obsessed with getting this card to drop. The only good news is I have majorly leveled up my merchant - so that is my silver lining I guess :bang:
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#21 TheSquishy

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Posted 14 November 2011 - 12:39 AM

You may be card repellent.

I've been hunting raydrics for 7 years and have never gotten a raydric card.
I am also card repellent.
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#22 Astraeos

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Posted 14 November 2011 - 03:37 AM

It's all about how lucky/unlucky you are really with lower drop rates... in geffenia last week I had 3 cards drop in the span of 20 minutes. Sadly it was all the cards from geffenia that you'd cry to see drop T_T

the 0.02% rate was something like 3/20000 rounded up
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#23 TheUraharaShop

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Posted 15 November 2011 - 06:29 PM

um... just so that everyone knows... the rate of getting a card is 1 in 10,000 PER KILL. The rate of getting a card doesn't not increase from 10,000 to 9,999 after you kill one of that monster.

Think of it like this:

-I'm thinking of a number between 1 and 10
-Guess what number it is,
-Every time you guess wrong the number will change

It is that though that process items are dropped (as well as the upgrading system)

So a person will go, if 10 people guess at once, then someone will win. However the rates are set based on each individual guesses (more specifically per kill).

So using bubble gum, just means you get 2 guesses instead of one; it doesn't mean you're now picking a number between 1 and 5 its still between 1 & 10.

Edited by TheUraharaShop, 15 November 2011 - 06:31 PM.

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#24 dragonmaster731

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Posted 15 November 2011 - 10:09 PM

Statistically you need to kill about 5,000 for a card to drop. (that is if the card drop rate is .02%)

Not too sure if gum works with card drop, since I did a run of it a while back and it does not seem to increase the chance of dropping card. However it does increase other drops.
Heim suppose to test the gum with the card drop rate but either he did not have time, forgot about it, or something else... like that it doesn't increase the drop rate that's why he didn't post it. But who knows... just my conspiratorially theory lol.

Here's the link to the old test he did with gum and drop rate.
http://forums.warppo...en/page__st__75
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#25 Gangstaz

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Posted 16 November 2011 - 03:48 AM

If you're speaking statistically... please take into consideration the standard deviations. It IS statistically possible to kill 100,000 monsters and not get its card. But that is at the very end of the left tail of a normal distribution.
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