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Rune Refining Statistics


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#1 Phish

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Posted 16 August 2017 - 09:43 PM

Here I've calculated the data for materials and resources needed to upgrade the paradigm runes. Note these charts only apply to the honor runes at the moment as I am lacking the quantities of ores and dust needed for each tier. (If someone can provide the quantities needed for the 20 tier and 60+ I can upload the data) I didn't show the zulie statistics simply because I couldn't figure out the formula as the levels increase.
 
When using charged empowerment shards you want to start using them at a level where the last attempt is at 97 because it will give you the highest success rate overall. I chose 49 since it seems like a practical level to start at, if any. Respectively, you'd want to use the dungeon empowerment shards at an even number (assuming you have enough to use them until 100).
 
Runes get the greatest increase in stats every 10 levels, specifically at 50, 80 and 100 for the largest increase. This is why I chose to show data from level 80-100 even though it doesn't fall into the magic number which ends on 97.
 
 
Normal Refine Rate:

Honor Runes

Spoiler


Valor Runes
Spoiler


 
 
Special 5% Bonus Refine Rate:
 
Honor Runes
Spoiler


Valor Runes
Spoiler

 
 
So there you go, pretty expensive, but you probably already knew that.


Edited by Phish, 11 December 2017 - 05:17 PM.

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#2 Cortiz

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Posted 17 August 2017 - 03:48 AM

Nicely done.

 

Funny how from 30 to 31 clusters instantly doubles.


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#3 HoneyBunz

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Posted 17 August 2017 - 02:45 PM

Interesting information. Thanks for sharing it.

 

There will be a super boss event this coming Monday according to the ROSE FB page. Maybe you can get at least some of the mats you need from that. It's scheduled for 11 AM server time. Location not yet announced but the past few have been on Orlo.


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#4 Phish

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Posted 11 December 2017 - 05:46 PM

Updated the spreadsheets to include valor rune statistics, as well as the resources needed when using dungeon drop empowerment shards.


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#5 Lijona

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Posted 19 February 2018 - 01:18 PM

I love statistics.

 

And now I somehow want to know the statistics when it is 7% empowerment event.;)

 

But great work! Thanks for sharing.


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#6 jhepfoy

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Posted 24 February 2018 - 09:28 PM

here's an upvote!


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#7 henrycao

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Posted 30 April 2018 - 01:07 AM

Example: 99 rune 5% success chance.

5% chance you'll succeed.

100%-5%=95%

95% chance you'll fail.

95% translated into decimal value is 0.95 with 1 representing 100%.

 

Each attempt is a separate 5% that will not add up, so we must calculate the probability through the amount of times we try.

 

Let N represent the number of attempts planned. Let A be substituted with the failure chance in decimal value.

(A)N = the decimal chance of failing all attempts.

 

So for example, I try to max my [99] rune with N=30 attempts.

(0.95)30 = 0.2146387639429375669411472225617......

21% chance to fail all 30 attempts.

 

To calculate the decimal chance of succeeding at least once:

1.0 - (A)N = the decimal chance of succeeding once in the number of runs.

 

In my example, I try to max my [99] rune with 30 attempts.

1.0 - (0.95)30 = 0.78536123.......................

So if I try to empower 30x's I have a 78% chance of succeeding once in the 30 tries.

 

 

:)

 

Lets take your average 20 in your statistics (which is not correct by the way) and put it into my equation.

(0.95)20 = 0.3584859..... decimal chance to fail all 20x's

1 - 0.36 rounded

about 0.64 = 64% chance to succeed once in those 20 tries..

 

so like try 14x's in a row when your at 99 and you will have a 52% chance to succeed once in the 14 tries lol

or save up more and more to play safer. The more attempts you make, the more likely you will succeed. That is the logic in this equation.

 

With this equation, you can now know approximately when you should start using shards (do some saving), if it succeeds early without shards, that's ok because it was super lucky. You can now calculate when the best time it is for you to use shards. Perhaps when its above 50% at succeeding at least once in the number of times tried.

 

 

99 wiith refine event is (0.90)N

...


Edited by henrycao, 30 April 2018 - 01:35 AM.

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#8 Phish

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Posted 30 April 2018 - 10:58 PM

So when I was compiling this data it did cross my mind that I may have not grasped statistics properly. But even after refining many runes it didn't seem like my numbers were far off, though there is still alot of variance when there is such a low success rate. Though I guess it is reassuring to know that, the actual average is less than these numbers show. Even if you'd have a 50% success rate to succeed to 100 with 14 attempts, would it still be considered the average amount? 


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