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LOST ITEMS AND FORGER RATES


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#1 Kureiya

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Posted 30 August 2017 - 06:35 AM

Since yesterday I was trying to craft some weapons with my forger. Yesterday I got 0/ 15 attemps with a 48% success, and I said its "ok". After that I noticed that I had less oris that what I was supposed to have left, but I am not complety sure since I didnt count them at the start. So, today I forged again to see if i have some luck. Re-stocked with many elements, oris and steels. I moved to morroc to try another spot for forging as a charm, and I noticed I lose all my rough winds and mystic frozens which I bought before I start forging And because i had foods on already, i crafted fire weapons only (because the other stones were gone, bigdeal). And i got another round of 0/15. So i am wondering now, how is possible to get 0/30 weapon crafts with a 48% success? And why some stones just dissapeared? IDK IF GMS ARE PLAYING WITH THE FORGING RATES BUT PLEASE FIX THIS. I UNDERSTAND WE CAN HAVE BAD LUCK SOMETIMES I WENT 1/10 BEFORE AND ITS OK, BUT 0/30 MAKES ME WONDER WHY I LEVEL MY FORGER AT ALL? The current rate is below 10%. I told myself last two days is just some bad streak but feels ridiculous now. I never, repeat, never had this kind of bad luck

 

 

Friend helped me with traslation because my grammar is horrible


Edited by Kureiya, 30 August 2017 - 07:34 AM.

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#2 MistressTIfa

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Posted 30 August 2017 - 06:54 AM

where are you getting your rate % from?  Cause I certainly don't think you have your stats nor your rate % correct if you're failing that much.

 

Either you're using an outdated calculator for rates or just outright exaggerating your results.  They can't play with the rates like you mention, nor are they going to be staring at you and being like, let's put this guys rate at 1% and see if he succeeds.  

 

If you're going to write posts like this, the least you can do is post a ss of your stats/gears, and have a RO Replay showing you messed up 30 times in a row or 10 times in a row on regular elementals. That's what the replay button is for.

 

The Rough Wind and Frozen part, I have no idea though.  Looks like a rollback of the server, but that wouldn't make sense because you'd see more people complaining here in that case. You also didn't mention whether your zeny went back because you can't have one thing happen without the other.  Either you didn't buy them to start with or the server rolled back and you dont have the items but your zeny is back to where it was before you bought it (and again if this happened, more people will be posting here that I PICKED UP A CARD, BUT IT DISSAPEARED WTF? etc etc) 


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#3 Kureiya

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Posted 30 August 2017 - 07:24 AM

where are you getting your rate % from?  Cause I certainly don't think you have your stats nor your rate % correct if you're failing that much.

 

Either you're using an outdated calculator for rates or just outright exaggerating your results.  They can't play with the rates like you mention, nor are they going to be staring at you and being like, let's put this guys rate at 1% and see if he succeeds.  

 

If you're going to write posts like this, the least you can do is post a ss of your stats/gears, and have a RO Replay showing you messed up 30 times in a row or 10 times in a row on regular elementals. That's what the replay button is for.

 

The Rough Wind and Frozen part, I have no idea though.  Looks like a rollback of the server, but that wouldn't make sense because you'd see more people complaining here in that case. You also didn't mention whether your zeny went back because you can't have one thing happen without the other.  Either you didn't buy them to start with or the server rolled back and you dont have the items but your zeny is back to where it was before you bought it (and again if this happened, more people will be posting here that I PICKED UP A CARD, BUT IT DISSAPEARED WTF? etc etc) 

i use ratemyserver calc for forger. Also wasnt hard to calc by ur self every stat count at 0.1. Also if u want to know i had all. Baby leopard, emp anvil. ancient gloves, C.pumps, Ramen Hat, +10 FOODS. And sure blessing and gloria up 100% time.Them i have 94/93 dex/luk. I had 48% i do mats on calc and on a paper. I know me chance because not was me first forge. I do forge every server i go. Then was the first time i got 0/30 from all the servers i played. The worst moment was 1/10 the worst of worst luckys. Them u told me now 0/30 is normal ? Also if u check market there r no new vvs weapon on market since yesterday morning. I check ragial everyday few times per day to know what going to forge. There was the same shops with the same weapons on it. 


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#4 MistressTIfa

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Posted 30 August 2017 - 07:44 AM

i use ratemyserver calc for forger. Also wasnt hard to calc by ur self every stat count at 0.1. Also if u want to know i had all. Baby leopard, emp anvil. ancient gloves, C.pumps, Ramen Hat, +10 FOODS. And sure blessing and gloria up 100% time.Them i have 94/93 dex/luk. I had 48% i do mats on calc and on a paper. I know me chance because not was me first forge. I do forge every server i go. Then was the first time i got 0/30 from all the servers i played. The worst moment was 1/10 the worst of worst luckys. Them u told me now 0/30 is normal ? Also if u check market there r no new vvs weapon on market since yesterday morning. I check ragial everyday few times per day to know what going to forge. There was the same shops with the same weapons on it. 

 

You just answered your question on why your success rate isn't working.  You're using ratemyserver that clearly says below right on it's page

 

Notes:

  • This forging calculator is based on eAthena's (revision 13377) forging code, it could give different results from official servers.

 

Not to mention this forging calc is outdated, and not even applying the different stat layout from the current Restart server

You said you do your calculations on paper, show me this.  clearly you have the ability to easily take a picture and just upload it.  Not sure why asking for your actual stats so that I can help you figure out your success rate is hard.  

 

I never said 0/30 is normal, it's abnormal in fact but that's as abnormal as me going 4/4 on vvs which I have done before

 

Just because I don't put them on market everyday doesn't mean you know what goes on in forging.  What makes you think I need to put vvs weapons on vend everyday?  You also miss out the fact that I can put vvs weapons on vend, and it gets instantly sold making it not come up on ragial.  


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#5 Kureiya

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Posted 30 August 2017 - 07:59 AM

You just answered your question on why your success rate isn't working.  You're using ratemyserver that clearly says below right on it's page

 

Notes:

  • This forging calculator is based on eAthena's (revision 13377) forging code, it could give different results from official servers.

 

Not to mention this forging calc is outdated, and not even applying the different stat layout from the current Restart server

You said you do your calculations on paper, show me this.  clearly you have the ability to easily take a picture and just upload it.  Not sure why asking for your actual stats so that I can help you figure out your success rate is hard.  

 

I never said 0/30 is normal, it's abnormal in fact but that's as abnormal as me going 4/4 on vvs which I have done before

 

Just because I don't put them on market everyday doesn't mean you know what goes on in forging.  What makes you think I need to put vvs weapons on vend everyday?  You also miss out the fact that I can put vvs weapons on vend, and it gets instantly sold making it not come up on ragial.  

1. Warpportal forum didnt let me post a img.
2. I leave me stats there. U can do the calc too. And if u mean i got less % lets say u have reason im wrong. Me % cant change too much maybe from 48% i calc to 45% because didnt going to change alot. Still not a reason for 0/30 forges. Also on regular elementals how do u explain the bad luck of 0 weapons crafted? it have 70% with no equips and i have all equips for a forger. Insted if the calc i isuing was out dated the paper didnt lie. No u cant compare doing 4/4 to 0/30 if u told me a similar rate u need to do 30/30 for be equal. And i pretty sure no one forger on server got it. Its impossible to fail 30 forges in a row like do it 30 success in a row. Rates r suppoust make it for control that. Also u see undershirts sloted that have 5% success and that people invest 30 attempts to get 1 sloted for 5% and u told me was the same for 48% ? why rates exist? if didnt care for nothing ? if u had 70% of chance for something it means u almost going to get 1/3 with the worst lucky  1/4 but 0/10 was not a chance.


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#6 DoomDoomDoom

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Posted 30 August 2017 - 08:47 AM

Warpportal lets you post and image.
You just dont know how.
Even if the rates are 90% , everything is based on your luck , not the char's LUK.

If you're angry because you failed to succeed the 48% , then it's your own problem because you cant blame if anything goes wrong if it isn't 100%

When you have the knowledge to post an image.
We will ask you to give proof , and believe me , you'll be the wrong one.

Edited by DoomDoomDoom, 30 August 2017 - 08:49 AM.

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#7 phamtrong

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Posted 30 August 2017 - 08:48 AM

LOL, as math:

the chance to fail 30 times in a row with 48% success is 0.52^30=0.000000003020649=1/331.054.683

Yes, one chance of three hundred million.

 

I never enchanted socket any thing after failing eight times in a row when trying to create a Greaves[1].
Every ratio(drop rate, socket enchant rate...) in Odin is a mystery!

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#8 Kureiya

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Posted 30 August 2017 - 10:18 AM

Warpportal lets you post and image.
You just dont know how.
Even if the rates are 90% , everything is based on your luck , not the char's LUK.

If you're angry because you failed to succeed the 48% , then it's your own problem because you cant blame if anything goes wrong if it isn't 100%

When you have the knowledge to post an image.
We will ask you to give proof , and believe me , you'll be the wrong one.

 

 

 

 

God damn well better i didnt go out today the chance for 0/30 forges was the same to get hit by lightning 2 times on the same place in a row. 


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#9 Kureiya

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Posted 30 August 2017 - 10:20 AM

 

LOL, as math:

the chance to fail 30 times in a row with 48% success is 0.52^30=0.000000003020649=1/331.054.683

Yes, one chance of three hundred million.

 

I never enchanted socket any thing after failing eight times in a row when trying to create a Greaves[1].
Every ratio(drop rate, socket enchant rate...) in Odin is a mystery!

 

 

and still people here saying was normal. And its inside rates. I better didnt go out from me house today. With that chances of me luck i going to get hit by some lightnings. Maybe a -_-ing meteor join in earth and for luck just go to me house. Also all that things have a better % than 0/30 forges


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#10 RistrettoJoe

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Posted 30 August 2017 - 06:49 PM

R u sure you didnt mess up the requirements? Did u forget continuously without checking your inventory?
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#11 DFreak423

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Posted 30 August 2017 - 06:56 PM

Why would you bother with VVS, +10 mastery attack has almost no effect for overall damage and it lowers your success a lot and most players won't pay that extra 1-1.5 mil people ask for VVS.


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#12 Kamona

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Posted 30 August 2017 - 10:14 PM

Problem isn't that "blah blah vvs weapon is bad".

Problem is that IF there is a problem with forge rates it IS a huge problem.
Since some people have characters entirely dedicated to this.

Maybe an answer from staff or experiences from other forgers could be nice ?


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#13 Kureiya

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Posted 31 August 2017 - 06:57 AM

Problem isn't that "blah blah vvs weapon is bad".

Problem is that IF there is a problem with forge rates it IS a huge problem.
Since some people have characters entirely dedicated to this.

Maybe an answer from staff or experiences from other forgers could be nice ?

 i made the same post on community there almost 2 forgers says that got 1/10 and 0/10 too in that days. Also one of them says got 49.5% so almost 50% them got 1/10. Them on discord irowiki i ask the same problem them another forge told me have the same issue too. 1/10. IDK If was rates issue or just bad luck for everyone but was not normal 3 or more bs have the same trouble on forges the same day

 

The problem with the another post was a moderator close it without answer or help me


Edited by Kureiya, 31 August 2017 - 06:58 AM.

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#14 Kureiya

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Posted 31 August 2017 - 06:59 AM

R u sure you didnt mess up the requirements? Did u forget continuously without checking your inventory?

 

i think u didnt understand what i mean. If i didnt got requirements how i do a forge ? And how u going to forge without open ur inventory? Please if u didnt know anything about forgers dont commend


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#15 Weidan

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Posted 01 September 2017 - 02:10 AM

so much salt in here, you should calm down.

 

i am sure there are alot of bugs yet to be fixed, not sure if this is one of them though.

i was never a big fan of gambling and always bought elemental weapons from other players,

but let's take the example of a poporing.

it has about a 50% chance of dropping sticky mucus. i needed 30 for a skill quest or something. so if you do the math, you would only need to kill 60 poporings to get 30 items, right? WRONG, ended up killing at least 200.

 

just sayin, even if your calculations are correct, it doesn't mean you have to succeed in 15/30 or 1/30 or even 1/100. theoretically you can craft an infinite amount of weapons and fail every single one of them

 

that's rng


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#16 Pixelakaroxi

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Posted 03 September 2017 - 09:28 PM

Just precautions:

1. Make sure you do really have all thats needed to forge, ie: anvil, hammer, reagents. Cause if youre missing a piece and try, i think ull fail 100% and still lose mats.

2. Make sure your forging skills are maxed out, as VVS starts you up at -50% chance i think? So you need more than just stats to deal with that. Maxed out smith weapon, weaponry reasearch etc.

3. Stats, duh.

48% is kinda low to be blaming rates since you dont even have a 1 in 2 chance now, but to me it seems like you dont have all the required things on you and thus youre failing and wasting mats.
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#17 tehPope

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Posted 06 September 2017 - 02:29 PM

I can confirm rates being lower than presumed from previous available data for forging calculators.  I have a spreadsheet with 250+ data points on vvs ele claymore alone and the presumed 47% success rate that I should have (according to previous calculators) is in reality closer to 37%.  

 

I have also gotten 0/14 crafts in a row on vvs ele level 3 weapons, so there is a lot of RNG involved no matter what.


Edited by tehPope, 06 September 2017 - 02:35 PM.

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