12 replies to this topic

[Nmrud]

Is the sucess rate really 50% when using card Insurance scroll? According to my recent experience i really doubt that its 50% of sucess. So many fails after eachother. Compare this with socketing on 50% chance then socketing has more of sucess.

 

I know that card blending got raised from 33% to 50%. But still it dosnt seem right.

 

[easykill1215]

Is the sucess rate really 50% when using card Insurance scroll? According to my recent experience i really doubt that its 50% of sucess. So many fails after eachother. Compare this with socketing on 50% chance then socketing has more of sucess.

 

I know that card blending got raised from 33% to 50%. But still it dosnt seem right.

 

It ​is really 50% yeah. It's really obvious to see that the success chance is much better than old time. Nowadays I only need around 60-80 card IS to get a skill lv10 and before it was over 120 IS.

 

Normally it should be succeed after 2 tries, sometimes not even failing. But there were times when I faced unlucky moments with 5-6+ fails. What I did was to change location or change channel and it worked.

Edited by easykill1215, 02 February 2018 - 07:47 AM.

[Kristof3195]

No matter what you do its all up to RNGesus if he wants you to succeed or fail 

[Popcorn]

Normally it should be succeed after 2 tries, sometimes not even failing.

 

That is not quite correct. 

As I explained it already twice on the forums (one time it was about enchant/soulcraft rate and one time recently about the drop rate of Mutisha's cloak) a success rate (chance) is re-diced every try.

 

In the case of monster card blending that means every blending try there is a 50% chance of success which does not mean that every 2nd try is actually successful, It depends on the RNG.

 

Let me explain in easy words and in a simplified example.

We are giving the RNG a number range from 1...1000. Every time the RNG generates a number < 500 the try fails.

 

1st try - RNG: 326: < 500 failed

2nd try - RNG: 488: < 500 failed

3rd try - RNG: 356: < 500 failed

4th try RNG: 15: < 500 failed

5th try RNG: 501: >= 500 success

 

if we would use the same example for a success chance of 65% by a given range of 1...1000 every time the RNG would generate a number < 350 would fail. That would mean for the example above:
 

1st try - RNG: 326: < 350 failed

2nd try - RNG: 488: >= 350 success

 

as you can see the success chance (rate) does not mean that you will get a definite success after X tries but still the chance to be successful at a specific re-dice is higher.

 

The only definite success is at 100% because the range in our example would be 1...1000 - the RNG would have to generate a number below 1 which would be not possible for a range 1...1000. So A 100% success rate IS actually a 100% success rate.

 

 

I hope that clarifies it.

 

 

[Popcorn]

Editited the post above because I forgot to change the numbers in the example with the 65%

[XiongmaoLin]

As an alternative way to think about this if your brain is making knots of itself whenever you read or hear the word "probability", and as an addition to the post above: toss a coin and count the maximum number of times in a row that it lands on tail (or head, your choice). Agreed, it does not happen often that such streak reaches five, six tails in a row; yet, sometimes, it does, as does the random number generator sometimes give a row of low values.

 

Call it luck if you will. Also, anything other than predicting the generated numbers is superstition and mysticism: changing channels or locations, reciting a mantra or clapping your hands before pressing F1 will not help with anything other than you feeling you are not a slave to Luck.

 

Which, in this case, we are.

 

 

EDIT : by the way! I double-checked and am now almost certain that 438 is superior to 350. I am confused not to have seen this on first reading.

Same goes with the topic you just pinned at the top of this forum.

Edited by XiongmaoLin, 03 February 2018 - 12:45 AM.

[Popcorn]

 

 

 

EDIT : by the way! I double-checked and am now almost certain that 438 is superior to 350. I am confused not to have seen this on first reading.

Same goes with the topic you just pinned at the top of this forum.

 

You're right. It was my fault. Corrected. Thanks for pointing that out.

I am also confused that I didn't notice it when writing it.

 

[easykill1215]

Well I just said that sentence based on my experience that it always successes after 2 tries for me, sometimes 1 try

But thanks for info of the correct success rate formula

[Lohuis]

There's actually a pretty nice way of calculating the expected number of card insuracance scrolls.

First the probability of success is approximatly 50% as described by Popcorn earlier.

Therefor, p = 0.5

 

Then you just need the number of successful combinations needed for a legend skillcard, which is 31

16 Cursed -> Normal

8 Normal -> Advanced

4 Advanced -> Special

2 Special -> Artifact

1 Artifact -> Legend

16+8+4+2+1 = 31

 

To get the average expected number of tries till success with a success rate of p=0.5 (50%) you just use the formula 1/p.

So for each combination we have the average expected number of tries till success of 2 (1/0.5).

Just multiply that by the number of combinations and we have our answer: 2 * 31 = 62

 

[zirothos]

There's actually a pretty nice way of calculating the expected number of card insuracance scrolls.
First the probability of success is approximatly 50% as described by Popcorn earlier.
Therefor, p = 0.5

Then you just need the number of successful combinations needed for a legend skillcard, which is 31
16 Cursed -> Normal
8 Normal -> Advanced
4 Advanced -> Special
2 Special -> Artifact
1 Artifact -> Legend
16+8+4+2+1 = 31

To get the average expected number of tries till success with a success rate of p=0.5 (50%) you just use the formula 1/p.
So for each combination we have the average expected number of tries till success of 2 (1/0.5).
Just multiply that by the number of combinations and we have our answer: 2 * 31 = 62

First thing you are wrong on the number of card needed
32 curse > 16 normal
16 normal > 8 advanced
8 advanced > 4 rare
4 rare > 2 artifacts
2 artifacts > 1 legendary

But yea the end numbers are the same. But most of the time you end with over 100 try to get the legend card.

[Lohuis]

First thing you are wrong on the number of card needed
32 curse > 16 normal
16 normal > 8 advanced
8 advanced > 4 rare
4 rare > 2 artifacts
2 artifacts > 1 legendary

But yea the end numbers are the same. But most of the time you end with over 100 try to get the legend card.

 

I kinda expected the # of combinations to be interpreded wrong. Well now to clarify I ment the number of combinations needed. Ofc you need 32 Cursed for a Legend card. But you need 16 Combinations from cursed to normal.

[ottolin]

monster card blending sucess rate is very low than 33%..

if want every player to trust over 50% rate..pls put vedio

 

i waste a lots money..gold.. time..scroll tol to blend some lv10 skill ....

 

Very low probability of success is scary

[XiongmaoLin]

What do you consider low? I am far more afraid by the average number of attempts I need to craft a +20 weapon.