86 replies to this topic

[Gantrithor]

When it comes to farming, gums have always been my best friend (not really). Howevery since the launch of VIP, things just felt not right. It felt as if things weren't dropping as often as before. Conversing with other subscribers turned VIP, they also noted things felt different.

With this weeks no drop penalty event, I decided it was a perfect opportunity to test things out and so I spent a large portion of the week, preparing and whacking mushrooms.

Data:

Spoiler

Firstly the control test;
Non-VIP, No Gum

Test		Test 1	Test 2	Test 3	Total	Item/Mushroom	Drop Table	±% Drop Table
Shrooms Killed	250	250	250	750	-		-		-
Mushroom Spore	254	274	263	791	1.0547		1.1000		95.88%
Poison Spore	132	126	144	402	0.5360		0.5500		97.45%
Feather		44	48	50	142	0.1893		0.2000		94.65%
Elemental Stone	14	23	16	53	0.0707		0.0900		78.56%
Alcohol		2	0	2	4	0.0053		0.0050		106.00%
Mixing Reagent	0	2	1	3	0.0040		0.0050		80.00%
Dew Laden Moss	0	0	0	0	0.0000		0.0020		0.00%

Before I could work out how VIP and Gums interact, I'd need to know how they work individually in the first place. So I tested whether Gums really worked on re-rolls or not.

Non-VIP, HE Gum
Expected Results

			Re-Roll Theory			90% Cap Theory
		in 250	in 750	Item/Mushroom	in 250	in 750	Item/Mushroom
Mushroom Spore	454	1363	1.8178		450	1350	1.8000
Poison Spore	227	682	0.9089		225	675	0.9000
Feather		122	366	0.4880		150	450	0.6000
Elemental Stone	62	185	0.2464		68	203	0.2700
Alcohol		4	11	0.0149		4	11	0.0150
Mixing Reagent	4	11	0.0149		4	11	0.0150
Dew Laden Moss	1	4	0.0060		2	5	0.0060

Results:

Results		Test 1	Test 2	Test 3	Total	Item/Mushroom	±% Re-Roll	±% 90%
Shrooms Killed	250	250	250	750	-		-		-
Mushroom Spore	444	448	460	1352	1.8027		99.17%		100.15%
Poison Spore	218	213	223	664	0.8853		97.40%		98.37%
Feather		153	160	151	456	0.6080		124.59%		101.33%
Elemental Stone	60	73	73	206	0.2747		111.49%		101.74%
Alcohol		3	4	3	10	0.0133		89.26%		88.67%
Mixing Reagent	2	1	2	5	0.0067		44.97%		44.67%
Dew Laden Moss	0	0	2	2	0.0027		45.00%		45.00%

From the above data, the results from matched the 90% capped multiplication theory more so than the re-roll theory.

So now, a test on how VIP works.

VIP, No Gum
Expected Results:

			Re-Roll Theory			90% Cap Theory
		in 250	in 750	Item/Mushroom	in 250	in 750	Item/Mushroom
Mushroom Spore	337	1011	1.3475		413	1238	1.6500
Poison Spore	168	505	0.6738		206	619	0.8250
Feather		70	210	0.2800		75	225	0.3000
Elemental Stone	33	98	0.1310		34	101	0.1350
Alcohol		2	6	0.0075		2	6	0.0075
Mixing Reagent	2	6	0.0075		2	6	0.0075
Dew Laden Moss	1	2	0.0030		1	2	0.0030

Results:

Results		Test 1	Test 2	Test 3	Total	Item/Mushroom	±% Re-Roll	±% 90%
Shrooms Killed	250	250	250	750	-		-		-
Mushroom Spore	411	405	408	1224	1.6320		121.11%		98.91%
Poison Spore	200	199	204	603	0.8040		119.32%		97.45%
Feather		66	75	77	218	0.2907		103.82%		96.90%
Elemental Stone	28	30	30	88	0.1173		89.54%		86.89%
Alcohol		2	3	1	6	0.0080		106.67%		106.67%
Mixing Reagent	4	0	3	7	0.0093		124.00%		124.00%
Dew Laden Moss	1	0	2	3	0.0040		133.33%		133.33%

Once again the results closely matched 90% capped multiplaction as opposed to re-rolls.

Now the test to see how they work together.

VIP, HE Gum

Results		Total	Item/Mushroom	±% Drop Table
Shrooms Killed	1000	-
Mushroom Spore	1792	1.7920		162.91%
Poison Spore	897	0.8970		163.09%
Feather		697	0.6970		348.50%
Elemental Stone	298	0.2980		331.11%
Alcohol		19	0.0190		380.00%
Mixing Reagent	7	0.0070		140.00%
Dew Laden Moss	5	0.0050		250.00%

As you can see, the Mushroom Spores and Poison Spores have a much lower percentage change from the drop table than Feather and Alcohol. This clearly demonstrates that the 90% cap exists and is affecting the drops.

Now, looking at the Feathers, the drops have increased nearly 350%. Now it seem very much like a stab in the dark to say that VIP works like Gum bonus and the bonuses are added togther to form +250% (for HE Gums). However, when VIP was launched, this is exactly what happened to VIP and Battle Manuals. No one picked it up for Gums because most people, Community Moderator Heimdallr included, believed that Gums worked on the re-roll theory.

Because it seemed like a stab in the dark, I decided to test this further, see below.

Confirmation Test:

Spoiler

From what I've found above, I would expect to gain +150% or 2.5x drops from VIP and Regular Gum; The ( ) Repressent the 90% cap, just to really test whether it exists or not.

		Expected Results		
		in 250		in 750		Item/Mushroom	
Mushroom Spore	688 (450)	2063 (1350)	2.7500 (1.8000)
Poison Spore	344 (225)	1031 (675)	1.3750 (0.9000)		
Feather		125		375		0.5000
Elemental Stone	56		169		0.2250
Alcohol		3		9		0.0125
Mixing Reagent	3		9		0.0125
Dew Laden Moss	1		4		0.0050

Results		Test 1	Test 2	Test 3	Total	Item/Mushroom	±% Expectations
Shrooms Killed	250	250	250	750	-		-
Mushroom Spore	437	448	447	1332	1.7760		64.58% (98.67%)		
Poison Spore	228	216	223	667	0.8893		64.68% (98.81%)
Feather		126	127	123	376	0.5013		100.26%
Elemental Stone	60	55	45	160	0.2133		94.80%
Alcohol		2	4	6	12	0.0160		128.00%
Mixing Reagent	4	6	3	13	0.0173		138.40%
Dew Laden Moss	1	1	2	4	0.0053		106.00%

As you can see, all drops very closely matched expectations. Also, from above it is almost certain that there does exist a 90% cap. Alcohol and Mixing Reagent were more off due to the small sample size and their very low drop rates leading to more variation (look at the very first test).

Conclusion:
There was a no drop penalty event when I tested this and therefore this does not currently factor in the drop penalty.

Regular Bubblegum is +100% as the item description says or x2
HE Bubblegum is +200% as the item description says or x3

VIP is +50% as it says or said on the website, 1.5x

Combined you get 2.5x and 3.5x for regular gums and HE gums respectively.

Those type of bonuses are capped at 90%

--
In the old system, from what I gather, there was no actual bonus from being subscribed, the 'bonus' came from setting the drop rates to 1.5x on subscription servers.

Because of this, in the old system, you would expect this.

Subscription x1.5, uncapped.

Subscription + Regular Gum, Base rate x1.5, then +100%, effectively giving 3x.

Subscription + HE Gum, Base Rate x1.5, then +200%, effectively giving 4.5x

It is entirely possible that re-roll theory was never true in the first place, it was the base rate change of 1.5x which nullified the 90% cap effect leading to many people believing in this theory.

Edited by Gantrithor, 14 May 2011 - 08:11 AM.

[brokenguy]

Number is way too small to say it's working. It seems to be working... but idk... some number is jumping all over the places...

example

VIP, HE Gum
Spoiler
Mushrooms whacked: 250
Mushroom Spores: 448
Poison Spores: 223
Feathers: 175
Elemental Stone: 72
Alcohol: 5
Mixing Reagent: 1
Dew Laden Moss: 0


Feathers: 175 --- should be about 135 so 175-135 = 40... so 40/175 = 23% different
While Alcohol and mixing should be the same but 5 to 1? making it 400% different...

Thanks for the report though.

Edited by brokenguy, 10 May 2011 - 12:09 PM.

[heyxsean]

Is your luck broken.

[BlackPotato]

gum isnt working as intended. too lazy to find the thread

[KingOfBabylon]

I don't know, did you get punched in the mouth?

Jk, I heard it's not working quite right yet

[Dantemss]

How about the belief that VIP is like an extra roll that happens 50% of the time and doesn't affect base rates and doesn't multiply gum effect?

That gets you awfully close to the 90% cap numbers too.

55% drop chance = 45% non-drop chance

2 extra rolls (HE gum) -> 9.1125% non-drop chance = 90.8875% drop chance

VIP: If not dropped yet, 50% chance to roll again -> 4.55625% extra roll chance, with 55% drop chance in that roll -> 2.5059375% extra drop chance

Total drop chance (HE gum) -> ~90.9% -> Expected number of spores: ~455

Total drop chance (HE gum + VIP) -> ~93.4% -> Expected number of spores: ~467

And if this is the case we would see why VIP doesn't affect drop rate as much as we would like.

Edited by Dantemss, 10 May 2011 - 01:50 PM.

[Heimdallr]

I know there is an interaction (Positive) between VIP and GUM. But is it as big as what players would expect?

The answer is no, it doesn't work as many players expect, but the results of this test clearly show there is an interaction between VIP and Gum where both positively effect the amount of items you get. We ran a pretty extensive set of tests with one of hte Treasure boxes to see what all was dropped with and without the various gums/vip. It was not as thoroughly documented as this test, as we just needed to be sure it was higher than default.

Kudos Gantrithor on this test, I very much appreciate the time it took to run and post the results, I think many others will too.

[brokenguy]

Gum isn't working like the old server rates. The rate I use to compare with to his finding are of the server rate right now.

Base = 1
VIP + 50% re-roll

so 50% drop rate item

VIP = .5(base roll) + [.5 * .5](50% re-roll vip) = [.5 * .75] chance of fail = 37.5% of fail = 62.5% drop rate not the expected 75%

So gum is working as coded but as intended ... I don't think so.
http://forums.warppo...ntenance-notes/
post #11

Here's proof that VIP is not multi as been proven before.





These screen shot are taken just right now. There is no drop penalty as of right now. So your small scale test doesn't really prove anything really. Seems like the VIP isn't fixed yet for sure gum as well, just didn't do enough test to prove it. Do not have that much real life money to test it.

Edited by brokenguy, 10 May 2011 - 03:27 PM.

[Ryukke]

without the drop penalty event thing, is there a drop penalty on boss protocol monsters/MVPs?

[brokenguy]

without the drop penalty event thing, is there a drop penalty on boss protocol monsters/MVPs?

From what is said, MVP has not drop penalty, but mini boss/boss protocol monster still does have drop penalty.

[Tigra]

The most random gets stickied...

[Kitten]

I know there is an interaction (Positive) between VIP and GUM. But is it as big as what players would expect?

The answer is no, it doesn't work as many players expect, but the results of this test clearly show there is an interaction between VIP and Gum where both positively effect the amount of items you get. We ran a pretty extensive set of tests with one of hte Treasure boxes to see what all was dropped with and without the various gums/vip. It was not as thoroughly documented as this test, as we just needed to be sure it was higher than default.

Kudos Gantrithor on this test, I very much appreciate the time it took to run and post the results, I think many others will too.

Saying it isn't working as we expect is basically saying it isn't working as advertised, and that's a problem. Admitting you have inconclusive evidence of the drop rates is another problem. How do you propose you remedy these issues?

[Viri]

They should just change the description of gum to increases drops rates and HE gum to greatly increases drop rates! That way it does do what it says. There is a reason they don't give out exact info on stuff like this usually rofl

[HayrohsLegacy]

Even GMs put any kind of drop events or zero penalty rate between levels, hunts is 100% pure "luck".

Heim is right, we should not expect, coz the low rates of drops makes me wanna hunt more and encourage other ppl.

"Keep up or give up"

[Ralis]

I agree with Kitten. You don't take a half-baked cake out of the oven and eat it.

Quite frankly it's a little concerning that the GMs don't even know how Gum affects drops. Are we getting what we paid for? We don't really know at this point, and that's a little disconcerting.

[Sera]

The most random gets stickied...

I think Kitten should get stickied.

[Kitten]

It's been a while since I've been properly stickied.

[Heimdallr]

The point is, VIP and gum both work and both increase the items that end up on the floor over the long haul.

The VIP system for Drop does not work exactly like a permanent drop % event (which is how the premium server system worked in the past), but it does improve the drops.

The purpose in stickying this is it is an illustration that indeed it is working. The small scale test does not show to what degree but does show it is working. There have been many posts/PMs saying it isn't working at all, which is a false claim.

[Kitten]

So.. You're saying it's" working", just not properly, and somehow we should just accept this and keep paying for VIP regardless.

I'm really trying to hold back the snark here, I'm being serious. How do you justify this as being acceptable? And I ask again, what do you plan do to remedy these issues? This concerns everyone on the VIP system, don't try to gloss over it like we're exaggerating the issue. Now that the game is F2P, many of us have less reason than ever to shell out a subscription fee. You really shouldn't treat this so nonchalantly.

I'm not pressing this to make a scene or to attempt personal attacks against the management, I'm really asking this as a concerned customer.

[Andini]

vip a bot and run some tests

[BlackPotato]

The point is, VIP and gum both work and both increase the items that end up on the floor over the long haul.

The VIP system for Drop does not work exactly like a permanent drop % event (which is how the premium server system worked in the past), but it does improve the drops.

The purpose in stickying this is it is an illustration that indeed it is working. The small scale test does not show to what degree but does show it is working. There have been many posts/PMs saying it isn't working at all, which is a false claim.

ummm.... you see the problem here right? your not a stupid person. its the SAME problem as the exp table was once we hit vip and BAM we get 20% less or more (picking that number cause im lazy, it was considerably less than that) per monster we kill. first, you claimed it was working properly. then you said it was due to the vip system and "was working as intended". i am completely suprised that this has gone on this long without the community being up in arms about it. vip is not vip, its bull-_- if the game we played before this fiasco went into effect isnt the same as what we paid for previously. if your reroll chance isnt the same as when we werent ftp, then it is NOT WORKING AND NEEDS TO BE FIXED. your statement is half true: it IS working, but it needs to be fixed just like the exp was. /rant.

[Viri]

What he's saying is it IS WORKING PROPERLY. THIS IS HOW IT IS GOING TO WORK NOW.

[Gantrithor]

I'm still working on this, I got enough for the gum part, I just gotta do the VIP part. I've run out of time, I'll do it tomorrow before maint.

[DarkwingGT]

So I'm a bit confused. The VIP system says it increases drops by 50%. If it does not increase drops by 50% and this is a service we are paying for, is that not false advertising? If the gum says it increases drops by 100%, should it not increase drops by 100%?

Or has it been concluded that everything is increasing the drop rate by the proper percentage?

I'm a bit curious, is it that we know the formulas and the empirical data isn't lining up or do we not even know the formulas?

[Heimdallr]

We'll update hte websites then to state it just increases drop rate.

I can't make a convincing statement of how it does without releasing formulas that I don't have. I know the increase is there, and it is indeed set to 50%, but it does not work as

50% drop of item + (drop*.50) = how often it falls on the ground (75% in this case)
and even if it did, the gum would play hell with these percents because it works on a seperate system of enhancing the rate of dropping. On some items it is much more easy to see its benefit than on others.

It is working precisely how it is supposed to work but it in no way is easy to explain succinctly in a short sentance to a player that doesn't understand how the drops work. So we'll just change it to "Increased Drop rate of items from Monsters" and be done with it.

If anyone asks that enhancement is indeed 50%.