??? I didn’t just pull the numbers to make a point here bruh what are you talkin about. 1 out of 396 shadow gears in the box is unfrozen weapon II and that chance of getting it based on the box has 0.04%
I think it's because you framed the odds strangely to begin with.
The odds are .04% for the single particular gear you're looking for. Those odds will remain .04% with every box you open regardless of how many items are in it--whether it is 396 or 2.
2 items means the other 1 item will appear 99.96% of the time.
396 items means the other 395 items will appear 99.96% of the time.
Basically the 1/396 is irrelevant to singular specific gear chasing in this scenario. Saying it has 396 items doesn't make that single gear "harder" to appear. If it had less items (like 30) and they kept the rate at .04%, then what changes? Still takes just as many boxes.
396 items just means the market won't really be saturated with any single piece of gear because there's just so much in it.
Edited by Jerbear, 17 November 2021 - 04:21 PM.