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Refinement cost calculations


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#1 DrAzzy

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Posted 05 November 2012 - 11:10 AM

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For information on the basics of the refinement system, see: http://irowiki.org/w...finement_System

This page assumes level 4 weapons or armor unless otherwise specified.


Going from +4->+7

The best choice for going from +4->7 will vary based on the cost of the item, and how you value enriched ores. This calculator will give the average cost, and how many +0 items will be needed (on average) to make a +7.

http://drazzy.com/calc/upgrade.shtml

Going from +7->+9

Using enriched hammer to do +7->9, you'll average 40 enriched per +9 (median 26 - it's thrown off by the long unlucky tail). 90% of attempts will be successful within 94 or fewer enriched.

Using normal HD to do +7->9, you'll average like 258 HD per +9 (median 174). 90% of attempts will be successful within... uh... 616 HD


So - enriched is 26 KP now, so enriched to +9 averages 1040 kp (median 676), with 90% of attempts costing under 2450kp. (with enriched box 50: 760, 494 and 1786, respectively)

HD is 10kp each, so enriched to +9 averages 2580 kp, (median 1740), with 90% of attempts costing under 6160 kp.

At 2 seconds per attempt (an aggressive target), we're talking a minute and 20 seconds with enriched, and 8 minutes with HD. The time spent upgrading is significant, since if you're unlucky

So using HD, you'll spend 6 times longer pressing buttons and spend 2.5x (3.5x with enriched 50 boxes) as many kafra points.

tl;dr: Don't ever try to make a +9 without enriched hammer.

Going from +9->+10

The success rate going +9->10 is 10% (for level 4 weapons and armor). The options are to do HD Ori/Elu, or to use Safe to 10 Certificates. But which is the better option?

On average, it will take 10 attempts to get +10, 9 of which will fail.

So the cost to +10, on average, 10x cost per attempt, plus 9x cost per failure (plus the +9 you started with, of course).

That means, using safe certs, the cost of making a +10 averages ten times the cost of a Safe to 10 Certificate.

Using HD, and one of the Hammers to get back to +9, the average cost is 10 HD's (100kp), plus 9x the cost of going +8->9.

Using HD w/mighty hammer: Average 208 HD, median 115, 90% within 555 HD, with costs of 2080, 1150, and 5550 kp respectively. This places the cost at 18820 KP from +9->10! This also involves 41.6m zeny in upgrade fees (!!!)

Using Enriched Hammer: Average 29, median 13, 90% within 79, with costs of 754, 328, and 2054 respectively with boxes of 10, (551, 247, 1501 with box of 50). This gives us a cost of +9->10 of 6886kp with boxes of 10, and 5059kp with boxes of 50. Upgrade fees are 5.8m either way.

So, to bring this back to safe to 10 certs:

If there is no enriched hammer event running, safe cert replaces 1882 kp of HD ore and 4.1m in upgrade fees, and is almost certainly cheaper.
If there is enriched hammer with boxes of 10, safe cert replaces 687 kp of ore.
If there is enriched hammer with boxes of 50, safe cert replaces 506 kp of ore.

The value of KP and safe certs vary over time and between servers, so I can't say which is a better deal where, but that is what you should compare the cost of a safe to 10 cert when deciding whether it's worth the expense of using them.

Going beyond +10

There's nothing fancy here, since the rate is constant, and there is only one way to approach it. The rate is 10% for lvl 4 weapons and armor, 20% for level 1-3 weapons. Don't even think of using non-HD Bradium/Carnium.

Since the whole thing is simpler, I've just provided averages.

So, for lvl 1-3 weapons:

Average 5 attempts to get a +11

Average 5 attempts at +11->+12 to get +12, so 5*(5+1) = 30 HD Bradiums to go +10 -> +12

Average 5 attempts at +12->+13 to get +13, but it goes back to +11 on fail, saving you 5 HD bradiums, so 5*(30+1)-4*(5)=135 HD bradiums to go +10->+13

Average 5 attempts at +13->+14 to get +14, by same reasoning, 5*(135+1)-4*30 = 560 HD bradiums


+11 - 5 HD Brad
+12 - 30 HD Brad
+13 - 135 HD Brad
+14 - 560 HD Brad

Again - these are all averages.

For lvl 4 weapons and armor, by identical reasoning:

+11 - 10 HD Brad/Carn
+12 - 110 HD Brad/Carn
+13 - 1110 HD Brad/Carn
+14 - 11110 HD Brad/Carn (yes, that's about $2 grand worth!)

tl;dr: Don't try to go beyond +12 on armor or lvl 4 weap unless you're both rich and stupid.


Edited by DrAzzy, 28 November 2013 - 07:04 PM.

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#2 beaupoem

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Posted 25 December 2012 - 09:38 PM

so it surprises me how many players don't even know the basics of refining and they want to buy all these high end gears with their kafra shop stuff. wait no...it doesn't surprise me.

(someone offered me a +9 cranial valk shield for my +10 EA 2/5 hurricane fury. and then when i said no they said 3 immune shields. then i spent the next 20 min explaining the finer aspects of refining to them)
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#3 DrAzzy

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Posted 25 December 2012 - 10:25 PM

What an insulting offer. Were they seriously that dumb? I'd have assumed they were scammer - we just merged with valk, nobody has scruples there.
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#4 ilovemilk

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Posted 26 December 2012 - 04:16 AM

Thank you for taking efforts putting this into calculation. I think most of the statistic are extremely accurate. However, the rates for a regular Lv 4 weapon and a KVM weapon are much different in my opinion. From past experiences it would normally cost me at least 60 boxes of HD Bradium (300 HD Bradium Ores) to +12 a KVM weapon. On the other hand, non KVM weap costs half as much. Source: I've upgraded 4 KVM weapons to +12 and more than 10 Lv 3 and Lv 4 weapons. Stupid I know.
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#5 Shinigaw4

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Posted 15 January 2013 - 12:24 PM

Hey, what are the chances to go from +4 to +7 using Certs? Regular? Enriched? Is there a way to get the Enriched chances?

Assuming, regular chances, I'd need what, 7-8 Certs on average for a +7?
And assuming enriched, something like.. 4?
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#6 kiefer

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Posted 15 January 2013 - 12:56 PM

Whats the most efficient way to +7 a certain gear? I want to know whats the best method of upgrading(elu/ori/cert/e.ori/e.elu) to use for a certain value of gear.
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#7 DrAzzy

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Posted 15 January 2013 - 01:20 PM

I'm working on a calculator for which is best way to upgrade a certain gear.

There isn't a simple rule I can tell you though, because it depends on 4 different variables...
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#8 kasshin

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Posted 15 January 2013 - 09:06 PM

Certs for rare and expensive items. Enriched elu for cheap ones you can get multiples of (some may break, but that's okay). Or a combination of both, like using enriched to +5 / +6 and cert to +7. Sometimes even regular elu can be considered, since they give 60% success at some levels. But yeah, gonna have to calculate using those variables to see what's the most cost efficient way at the time.
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#9 Pick

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Posted 17 January 2013 - 10:20 PM

Nice Dr.Azzy the tl:dr versions are very funny
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#10 hmc317

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Posted 22 January 2013 - 05:46 PM

what would the cost calculations be for going to +8 with armor, with HD vs. Enriched? i want to see if there is a big difference, thanks for the help!!!
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#11 DrAzzy

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Posted 22 January 2013 - 07:09 PM

what would the cost calculations be for going to +8 with armor, with HD vs. Enriched? i want to see if there is a big difference, thanks for the help!!!


Yeah, it's gonna be a large difference. Mighty Hammer is only for fools and people making +10's (one could argue that these are not distinct groups...)
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#12 NukeDuke

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Posted 22 January 2013 - 09:13 PM

Say I want to refine a head gear from +7 to +9 using enriched hammer with enrich ores, if it fails will the head gear break? or you can just keep going until you can get a +9? So it in average it only takes 40 enrich ores to make a +9? Am I reading this right?
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#13 DrAzzy

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 08:16 AM

Say I want to refine a head gear from +7 to +9 using enriched hammer with enrich ores, if it fails will the head gear break? or you can just keep going until you can get a +9? So it in average it only takes 40 enrich ores to make a +9? Am I reading this right?

See the wiki for a description of the basics of refining
http://irowiki.org/w...king_Protection
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#14 DrAzzy

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Posted 28 January 2013 - 03:38 PM

Added calculator for best way to go +4->7
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#15 kiefer

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Posted 28 January 2013 - 03:40 PM

Awesomes.
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#16 harlokjai

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Posted 30 March 2013 - 01:11 PM

if its 10% to get from +10 to +11....................y do i spend like 50 ores jz to get it once to +11? And this happen many many times................T_T

But is the dmg different that great anyway from +10 to +11 or from +11 to +12?

Edited by harlokjai, 30 March 2013 - 01:23 PM.

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#17 DrAzzy

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Posted 30 March 2013 - 01:45 PM

It's 10% - you've just had crap luck. I got +12 in 5 ores, and later the same day, a +12 in under 25.

The damage difference isn't large (see http://irowiki.org/w...finement_System ) - it's only worthwhile imo for items that give bonus based on refine rate (or that you're going to use for skills that offer bonus based on refine), or for weapons to be used with Acid Bomb, where the upgrade bonus counts double because the skill depends on both atk and matk.

Edited by DrAzzy, 30 March 2013 - 01:46 PM.

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#18 harlokjai

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Posted 06 April 2013 - 04:52 PM

y do i really have such crap luck? i can't even get it from +10 to +11 in 29 bradium........everytime it takes like 50 to get to +11
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#19 DrAzzy

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Posted 06 April 2013 - 05:21 PM

Small sample. I used to hate upgrading and think my luck was horrible. But when enriched and hd came I started upgrading more, have faith in the law of large numbers. Eventually you'll have epic luck and make+12 in the ores or something
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#20 harlokjai

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Posted 06 April 2013 - 07:34 PM

And I'm assuming the percentage is the same whenever correct? So there shouldn't be any difference if i upgrade it 100 times in a row or break it up over 5 times?
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#21 DrAzzy

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Posted 06 April 2013 - 08:57 PM

If i flip a coin, the chance is 50:50 whether I get heads or tails; the chance does not change for the next throw. It is still 50:50. It works the same way with upgrading in RO.

If you don't believe me, I formally invite you to come visit me near boston to play some coin-fliping games for money.

Edited by DrAzzy, 06 April 2013 - 08:58 PM.

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#22 harlokjai

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Posted 13 April 2013 - 04:48 AM

If i flip a coin, the chance is 50:50 whether I get heads or tails; the chance does not change for the next throw. It is still 50:50. It works the same way with upgrading in RO.

If you don't believe me, I formally invite you to come visit me near boston to play some coin-fliping games for money.



Na, I believe you. Just my rotten luck then.............T_T
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#23 Opujhum

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Posted 01 May 2013 - 06:24 AM

Am i correct to say that, the way to go to +10 (already having a +9 gear) would be to wait for the Enriched NPC, because the HD ores are not worth it? neither are the safe to +10 cert.?

PLUS, i believe your Link is broken:
http://drazzy.com/calc/upgrade.html
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#24 Peerless

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Posted 02 May 2013 - 08:27 AM

Am i correct to say that, the way to go to +10 (already having a +9 gear) would be to wait for the Enriched NPC, because the HD ores are not worth it? neither are the safe to +10 cert.?

PLUS, i believe your Link is broken:
http://drazzy.com/calc/upgrade.html

Lol,you need HD Ores to go to +10.The Enriched Hammer npc stops upgrading your gear at
+9.You then need to talk to the Mighty Hammer npc to attempt to upgrade your gear to +10 and beyond.Imo though,Safe to 10 certs aren't worth it.If I downgrade to +8,(with my luck anyway),it would take me one or two ores every time to get back to +9.Then I try Mighty Hammer again with attempts to +10.+10 certs aren't worth it for me,because the same zeny I can use to buy those is the same money I can use to buy a box of enriched x50 ores.
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#25 DrAzzy

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Posted 02 May 2013 - 08:36 AM

I go over the protocol for upgrading to +10, and the implied value of save certs in the original post...

Am i correct to say that, the way to go to +10 (already having a +9 gear) would be to wait for the Enriched NPC, because the HD ores are not worth it? neither are the safe to +10 cert.?

PLUS, i believe your Link is broken:
http://drazzy.com/calc/upgrade.html

Fixed, forgot to update link after I converted page to shtml.

Edited by DrAzzy, 02 May 2013 - 08:37 AM.

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