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#26 Legalius

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Posted 06 January 2012 - 08:10 PM

Sayako: Gamblery's Fallacy

tl;dr - Regardless of how many you kill, the next one you kill is still only a 0.02% chance to drop (assuming card rates, which is a good assumption). Your chances don't get any better with time.


With a large enough sample size, statistical probability converges to classical probability. So with VIP and gum, he should have got it already. If you think 3k is not a large enough sample size, FYI 32 is defined as "large enough" in statistics. (That's when you transition from t-table to z-table)
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#27 iZooM

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Posted 06 January 2012 - 08:11 PM

Just wondering about the date when will we get the extra KP for the xmas KP event. Thanks in advance, I am not updated with this so please someone tell me:D. Ciao:D
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#28 sayoko

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Posted 06 January 2012 - 08:11 PM

Woops, I don't think you read the article. Put another way:

3000 is a laughably small number of kills to expect a piece of gear to drop from. At card rates, 30,000 wouldn't be unheard of. Gravity has better things to do than sit around and listen to people whine about that thing they want not having dropped.

keep posting what you want, i consider this more like a "bugg report" since blanks are not droping in that map, also did you readed the light granule thing? have you? :wave:
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#29 iiNote

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Posted 06 January 2012 - 08:17 PM

I'm wondering if having the turn ins being set up in that weird way for non VIPs is good or bad, but over all it sounds like a good change...

Umm, could you make advance woe boxes tradeable, please? These boxes are tradeable:

Posted Image

But somehow these boxes are not:

Posted Image

I would like to trade some boxes to other accounts, 1 weight white/blue potion packs are super for long travels without going back to kafra xP.

Errr.. Kad... Why do you go back to kafra? xD when you can buy the boxes with that weird kafra shop button they implemented :wave:? Heh
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#30 sayoko

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Posted 06 January 2012 - 08:21 PM

Sayako: Gamblery's Fallacy

tl;dr - Regardless of how many you kill, the next one you kill is still only a 0.02% chance to drop (assuming card rates, which is a good assumption). Your chances don't get any better with time.

thin about it twice your own logic......... becouse random its not random?

if thats right what you think its posted and you do the math, i could have already 10 of those rings or at least 1
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#31 Raidius

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Posted 06 January 2012 - 08:34 PM

making non-vip have to do the work twice when the rewards is already lower is very unfair imo
no warp, less xp from kills, less xp from quest itself, half EMB its more than enough penalty imo
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#32 jackyan26

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Posted 06 January 2012 - 08:37 PM

@Amis
Don't bother, some people are just dumb.
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#33 aMoore

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Posted 06 January 2012 - 08:40 PM

I have to agree, that is just too much for non-VIP, too much. Going back and forth, imagine if you need to kill 4 type Dimiks. Doing the entrance quest again and again, waw.. just waw.
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#34 ChrisWintermoon

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Posted 06 January 2012 - 08:42 PM

thin about it twice your own logic......... becouse random its not random?

if thats right what you think its posted and you do the math, i could have already 10 of those rings or at least 1


The Dropchance of ,,Blank Card" has been disabled on several Monsters due to ,,abusing respawn/ event monster". I am sure this includes (almost) all monsters from an Instance too, wich explains why you got no Blanks so far.

By the way, my party found 2 Orbs during our yesterday run. We also got an Glove from the MVP :wave:
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#35 sayoko

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Posted 06 January 2012 - 08:54 PM

The Dropchance of ,,Blank Card" has been disabled on several Monsters due to ,,abusing respawn/ event monster". I am sure this includes (almost) all monsters from an Instance too, wich explains why you got no Blanks so far.

By the way, my party found 2 Orbs during our yesterday run. We also got an Glove from the MVP :wave:

then no vip players cant have acces to this items......... thanks for the info, im not wasting my time anymore(already 35 hours)
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#36 ChrisWintermoon

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Posted 06 January 2012 - 08:58 PM

then no vip players cant have acces to this items......... thanks for the info, im not wasting my time anymore(already 35 hours)


When did I say that non-VIP player can not have access to those items?
Of course you can get them to drop you the item, but the chance is AFAIK (No statistical proof yet) 0,01 for Non-VIP/ No Gum and as we all know luck is a b***
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#37 sayoko

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Posted 06 January 2012 - 09:03 PM

at this point i think........ in no time the gms will want to inplement the "dual client only for vip" XD :wave: :sigh: -_- (you cant have runing 2 clients at same time if you are not vip)
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#38 ChrisWintermoon

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Posted 06 January 2012 - 09:05 PM

Isnt that enabled on Valkyrie only?
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#39 Pril

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Posted 06 January 2012 - 09:05 PM

I do hope you're fixing homunculus bugs before releasing Homu S. It'd be pointless to try to level a Homu S when 100 flee is missing.
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#40 Skotios

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Posted 06 January 2012 - 09:17 PM

Yay homuculus update! My vani needs to find a way to delevel twice so he can be 99 again.
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#41 ChrisWintermoon

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Posted 06 January 2012 - 09:22 PM

Yay homuculus update! My vani needs to find a way to delevel twice so he can be 99 again.


No prob, the changing script only checks for >99 and doesnt give a **** if the Homunculus is higher.
You may be lucky to have an 102 Homu S :-)
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#42 Amis

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Posted 06 January 2012 - 09:49 PM

With a large enough sample size, statistical probability converges to classical probability. So with VIP and gum, he should have got it already. If you think 3k is not a large enough sample size, FYI 32 is defined as "large enough" in statistics. (That's when you transition from t-table to z-table)


Not quite right. 0.01% chance means over an infinite number of kills, roughly 0.01% will drop the item Law of Large Numbers. Or, as number of kills approach infinity, roughly 1 in 10,000 should drop the item.

In the context of what you are talking about, you would need to take 32 people who have had an item drop and ask them how many kills it took them. Each individual kill is not a sample.
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#43 sayoko

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Posted 06 January 2012 - 09:52 PM

Not quite right. 0.01% chance means over an infinite number of kills, roughly 0.01% will drop the item Law of Large Numbers. Or, as number of kills approach infinity, roughly 1 in 10,000 should drop the item.

In the context of what you are talking about, you would need to take 32 people who have had an item drop and ask them how many kills it took them. Each individual kill is not a sample.

then theres nothing wrong on only getting 23 light granules with a 1% drop rate after killing 3,600 mimings? :wave: :sigh: -_- ;)
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#44 captainmaverick

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Posted 06 January 2012 - 09:55 PM

This suck, so no vip can't use bmx3 or whatever to trade all, and can't get both at the same time.
vip already get 1.5 xp more and double eden emblems, can have instant teleport to the map, can get again after complete meaning do 2 times and again after 3h meaning 3 times.
Yeah kick the dog when it already down right. by dog i mean non-vip.

EDIT: a big -1 to Heimdallr aka GMs

I find this funny. It's like people who don't pay for VIP are ungrateful to Gravity for making the game free to play. Just be glad you get to play the game for free. It's not Gravity's fault you are too cheap to pay $7 or less per month for VIP. Just take a break from McDonalds for a day or 2 per month. Maybe if the average person did this they wouldn't be as obese. (Bolded "as" to make sure nobody thinks taking 1 day off of McDonalds will make you skinny again because it won't.)
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#45 AimeeZ

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Posted 06 January 2012 - 09:57 PM

i got one dancing shoes, 4-5 chrome swords, 2 mental sticks, 1 rampage fist, no teletkinetic orb, several daggers and 1 alchemy glove.
no gum used. vip.
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#46 Solitude

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Posted 06 January 2012 - 10:12 PM

I think I have killed over 200,000 raydrics in my time playing RO, some hunting the card some not, and have never had a raydric card drop; its all about luck. Sayoko, obviously you just have not been lucky, keep at it one will drop eventually. 3,500 isn't that much. Oh and 1% of 3500 is 35 so you're not to far off the mark with the light granuals.
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#47 TsukishiroSayuki

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Posted 06 January 2012 - 10:20 PM

I find this funny. It's like people who don't pay for VIP are ungrateful to Gravity for making the game free to play. Just be glad you get to play the game for free. It's not Gravity's fault you are too cheap to pay $7 or less per month for VIP.


1º Stop insulting the non-vip players. We are no way cheap. A lot us spend same or more than some vip's with other things ingame.
2º Stop assuming that everyone that plays live in US, it iRO[Internacinoal RO] nor usRO[United states].
--2ºb In some place dollar is 2 times, or more, the price of the local money, so 7 dolla become 14 of the native price or more.

Just take a break from McDonalds for a day or 2 per month. Maybe if the average person did this they wouldn't be as obese. (Bolded "as" to make sure nobody thinks taking 1 day off of McDonalds will make you skinny again because it won't.)

THIS have no USEFULL information and have NOTHING with was said in my reply to this topic. i don't CARE for MC, i don't eat there.
You obviosly IS a Troll.

Edited by TsukishiroSayuki, 06 January 2012 - 10:22 PM.

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#48 ChrisWintermoon

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Posted 06 January 2012 - 10:23 PM

1º Stop insulting the non-vip players. We are no way cheap. A lot us spend same or more than some vip's with other things ingame.
2º Stop assuming that everyone that plays live in US, it iRO[Internacinoal RO] nor usRO[United states].
--2ºb In some place dollar is 2 times, or more, the price of the local money, so 7 dolla become 14 of the native price or more.


THIS have no USEFULL information and have NOTHING with was said in my reply to this topic. i don't CARE for MC, i don't eat there.


Where do you live that the exchange rate is so messed up?
I live in germany and for us 7$ is like 4 EUR. Thats nothing.
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#49 captainmaverick

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Posted 06 January 2012 - 10:38 PM

1º Stop insulting the non-vip players. We are no way cheap. A lot us spend same or more than some vip's with other things ingame.
2º Stop assuming that everyone that plays live in US, it iRO[Internacinoal RO] nor usRO[United states].
--2ºb In some place dollar is 2 times, or more, the price of the local money, so 7 dolla become 14 of the native price or more.

1, 2, and 2b. You are not helping your case. Stop spending your VIP money on in game items. It ruins the economy. Anybody can make zenny without spending real money. And if you are spending money on in game items 2b is null and void.

THIS have no USEFULL information and have NOTHING with was said in my reply to this topic. i don't CARE for MC, i don't eat there.
You obviosly IS a Troll.

And yes I love to troll. But seriously, I have no respect for obese people. And it was relevant to the point of my post. Substitute 1 day of fast food for 1 month of VIP. And don't try to tell me there are people who play this game that don't go to fast food restaurants. Unless you are Bill Gates rich you go to fast food restaurants on occasion-->frequently. Fast food is fast and cheap. And nobody who is dirt poor and can't afford fast food can afford a computer/internet service to play this game in the first place. Therefore you go to fast food restaurants. :wave:

Edited by captainmaverick, 06 January 2012 - 10:39 PM.

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#50 KataiKou

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Posted 06 January 2012 - 10:44 PM

Bleh, concern at the moment is that there aren't enough people participating in TIs to get a party together. Even with VIP, doing a TI is worthless if no one parties with you. Doing TIs without Warps is enough to deter people from participating, so doing all that work for a single TI just isn't worth it to most people. Especially when a certain level range is stuck in Thor every week.

So let's put that together. No Warp. 1 Turn in at a Time. Certain death at 3% exp penalty per death. Are TIs worth anything to non-VIPs at all?

Edited by KataiKou, 06 January 2012 - 10:45 PM.

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